Global Intelligence Update
September 9, 1998
North Korea Offers Opportunity for Japanese Hawks
North Korea's successful launch, on August 31, of a two-stage "Taepodong"
missile, which overflew the northern end of the Japanese island of Honshu,
has given the Japanese grounds for reconsidering the constitutional
limitations on their military. Japan's constitution, drawn up in the
aftermath of World War Two, declares that the Japanese "renounce war as a
sovereign right of the nation, and the threat or use of force as a means of
settling international disputes." Nevertheless, according to the BBC,
Pyongyang's missile launch, and the possibility of a second missile launch
soon, led the Director General of the Japanese Defense Agency, Fukushiro
Nukaga, to say that the Japanese constitution might allow a military strike
against North Korea, if necessary, "rather than just sitting and waiting
for death." Japanese warplanes were placed on alert in anticipation of a
second launch, though as they could not hope to intercept and shoot down a
ballistic missile, their potential mission was unclear.
On September 2, Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary, Hiromu Nonaka, said that
Tokyo would consider developing a military reconnaissance satellite, and
participating in a joint Theater Missile Defense (TMD) project with the
United States. Japan's eagerness to develop its own spy satellite has been
evident for some time. The January 9, 1998, issue of the Global
Intelligence Update reported on a squabble between Japan and the U.S. over
American opposition to an independent Japanese reconnaissance capability
(http://www.stratfor.com/services/gintel/region/stories/010998.html). As
for the TMD project, Japanese analysts have argued that Tokyo has only been
awaiting a "decisive excuse" to join the project. The statement by a U.S.
defense official, cited by Japan's "Kyodo" news agency on September 4, that
the U.S. expects Japan to sign on to the TMD program during an upcoming
meeting of U.S. and Japanese foreign and defense ministers in New York,
suggests that Washington was only awaiting Japan's "decisive excuse" as
well.
Tokyo has rejected Pyongyang's insistence that the Taepodong launch placed
North Korea's first satellite in orbit. Nukuga expressed his skepticism
about North Korea's claims on September 6, stating that neither the U.S.
nor Japan had any evidence to indicate a satellite was launched, and that
the missile's flight over Japan made it a threat, regardless of its
payload. His skepticism was echoed by Nonaka on September 7. Japanese
Foreign Minister Masahiko Komura said on September 8 that Japan would
maintain sanctions on North Korea, even if Pyongyang actually did launch a
satellite.
Redefining self-defense to include preemptive strikes would effectively
shred Japan's constitutional constraints on its military. After all, it
could be argued that Japan's entire effort in World War Two was merely a
preemptive strike in self-defense, aimed at protecting the country from the
threat of economic blockade by the U.S. Navy. Japan's constitution
provided the country with a win-win situation during the Cold War, when
Japan allowed the U.S. to defend it as part the containment of the Soviet
Union, in return for opening American markets to cheap Japanese goods. As
the Soviet threat evaporated, U.S. participation in this lopsided
arrangement became less than guaranteed, and Japan began to wrestle with
its commitment to military self-restraint.
The debate in Japan over the country's military posture intensified in
1998. The Global Intelligence Update reported on April 24, 1998, on
Japan's efforts to revise its Self-Defense Forces Law to allow a greater
latitude for the use of force by the Japanese military when deployed abroad
(http://www.stratfor.com/services/gintel/region/stories/042498.html).
Japan's efforts to redefine its military constraints came up again in May,
1998, during the revision of the U.S.-Japanese defense guidelines
(http://www.stratfor.com/services/gintel/region/stories/052798.html).
The idea that Japan could be eternally committed to non-aggression was a
fiction that could only be supported by the geopolitical anomaly that was
the Cold War. Ever since the end of the Cold War, Japan has been seeking
an excuse to redesign its military posture to match current reality. North
Korea, always ready to play the bugaboo with its saber rattling and
vitriolic rhetoric, has finally come through with a real threat -- a
missile capable of hitting Japan. Doves in Tokyo could argue for
diplomatic resolutions to disputes with Moscow, Beijing, Seoul, or
Washington, but it is hard to make a case for sane dialogue with Dear
Leader Kim Jong-il in Pyongyang. Tokyo's hawks now have their "decisive
excuse." We expect Japanese defense policy to evolve accordingly.
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