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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: william liao who wrote (2742)	9/9/1998 12:33:00 PM
From: Paul Shread	Respond to of 12623

Actually, I put the money in LU and NOK.A, so I realized a substantial gain that I actually held onto. CIEN went up because of the takeover and nothing else; it was otherwise headed for the $30s. I definitely wouldn't own a company just because they're a takeover candidate; either you like their fundamentals or you don't. And I would say that CIEN's fundamental business prospects have been drastically reduced; they're going to show a substantial decline in earnings this quarter, and the picture going forward is very murky without TLAB's sales force. As I said, I can't figure out what their problem is, but on their own they'd probably be headed for $10-$15 right about now. They're fortunate that they will remain a takeover candidate even if the TLAB deal falls through. But I wouldn't rule out CIEN going lower; look what happened to AFCI, and they were a very viable takeover candidate earlier this year (they may still be, for all I know). Technology and the telecom market in particular can change in a heartbeat. Once your market cap begins to slip it can snowball; that is, after all, how you finance your growth. I agree never look back; you miss your next opportunity if you waste your energy kicking yourself over your losses. Believe me, I had my moments wondering if I should have held onto CIEN, and then I had to remind myself what I did with the money. Now I'm breathing a big sigh of relief that I stuck to my sell rule, which has me up 25% this year instead of down 20%. Good luck to you, William. Paul