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To: Ibexx who wrote (2493)9/9/1998 1:20:00 PM
From: Sam Citron  Respond to of 3424
 
Ibexx, RE: CIEN

I remember you are a big fan of CIEN.

Yes, I was a big fan of shorting Ciena and did so soon after its debut as an IPO. Still have a few bruises, but covered my last batch at 38, right before it made its last TLAB merger-induced bull run to 88. If only I had MB's patience and risk tolerance.

Now with capitulation in the wind by shell-shocked longs, disheartened arbs dumping and investors being asked to wait beyond the terrible October period for a vote, a PE under 20, and Milberg Weiss on their heels possibly willing to settle those damage claims for a couple of hundred million or some cheap options, I see a turnaround brewing and might dip my feet at 12 after window dressing season and tax loss selling subsides.

Sam



To: Ibexx who wrote (2493)9/9/1998 2:37:00 PM
From: Sam Citron  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3424
 
OTOT...More on CIEN meltdown (I would have sent this privately if you permitted that option) Birke has certainly committed himself to this merger in spite of the short term judgment of the market. Therefore he must say that he is still absolutely committed to the deal. He has given his word to Nettles as a businessman and can't be viewed as vaccilating. Besides, it is cheaper for TLAB if he maintains an unrealistically expensive conversion price and lets TLAB shareholders put the kabosh on the deal rather than TLAB management, which would invoke the walk-away penalty and risk the CEO's reputation.

Birke stated that his strategy had defensive dimensions. He could use CIEN's photonics capabilities to beef up his equipment to do battle with LU and he would hate to see CIEN fall to a competitor like NT or UNPH. In a few weeks, however, such a scenario may become a possibility. I never did see CIEN surviving as a stand-alone. I wouldn't even rule out the possibility that LU or CSCO could make a bid. The rumor of same will probably provide fodder for the next bull move in the stock.

Sam