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Strategies & Market Trends : LastShadow's Position Trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LastShadow who wrote (274)	9/9/1998 4:52:00 PM
From: Jay Lyons	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 43080

Scott- A look back on the gaps I asked about this morning (http://www.exchange2000.com/~wsapi/investor/reply-5702224). All were short plays. AOL triggered at 3:39 and would have netted 1/4 at close. CSCO at 10:54, 3 1/2 at close. INTC at 2:51, 9/16 at close. Now...my maximum pain is 1 point, so I would have dumped AOL for -1. Day net would have been 3 9/16, assuming I could get in and out on the button. Using the triggers you replyed with today, the results would have been much better (closer to 5 1/4)...you would have been short INTC nearly a point sooner, and wouldn't have been stopped out on AOL. Can you let me know how you arrived at those triggers, as both seemed to involve prints after the first hour. Also, all of these trades would have been losers before they became winners. Where do you set the pain threshold? Don't want to seem like a pest with these constant questions, but what the hell...if I can make more money by bugging you then you can bet that's what I'm gonna do! As always, muchos gracias, Jay

To: LastShadow who wrote (274)	9/9/1998 9:25:00 PM
From: LastShadow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 43080

DIS - a better example Lets look at Disney - it dropped starting on 9/2 and generated a short signal at around noon for 30.5. Continued dropping for two more days ( note that the gaps didn't qualify as FUll gaps as they didn't open ABOVE the previous day's high, so therefore its a modified gap and therefore a short candidate - so you continue short (or short again for intraday traders). Consolidation afternoon of 9/4 says its time to get out. Now, since I missed getting in on the fun ride down, but being aware of it, I decide to see if its worthwhile going long on 9/8 - it isn't - its a full gap up from 28.25 to 29.62 on the morning of 9/8 - therefore a worthy short candidate at the opening price - which it hits about 11 am. The up spike at 3:30 shakes you up nicely and you bail at 29 (for 0.625 profit), figuring it might gap tomorrow again, and should be kept on watch. Sure enough, it opens down today and keeps going down to you get on at 28.625 and ride it down to near close and bail at 27.875 (0.75 profit). Why bail - because it hit the local floor of 27.5 on 9/4 and looks to have a lot of resistance at that level. Make a note or set an alarm to flag you if it goes to 27.625 tomorrow morning to see it is rebounding for a ride up. Since its already on the watch list, if it gaps open, you just short it again if it starts heading down. Now, and end of day trader should have shorted at 29.25 on 9/3 as that was below the close of 9/2. they would set buy to covers at 28.5 wich is the simple trendline of the daily chart. Rising tendline says it would need to stay above 28.25 tomorrow to be consolidation (meaning the chart would be tightening for a move up). So my guess is a buying range for the remainder of the week between 27.75 and 28.5. DIS would need some seling pressure to take it below that, and what I see is accumulation right now at this number, so I will be looking for the buy signal. lastshadow