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Non-Tech : Chase Manhattan (CMB) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (162)	9/9/1998 7:58:00 PM
From: Logos	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213

Good point, though depression with 4.5% unemployment may be a overstating things a bit. But their problem has two heads. First, their banks are so stuffed with non-performing debts based on rediculous asset prices that they won't lend. US banks are quite willing to lend. We're drowining in credit card offers, and at pretty good interest rates too. Second, Japan has a serious problem with their aging population, who are no longer in the work but who need lots of expensive care. So they are forced to save much more than us. US doesn't have nearly as big a problem here. If you want a scary economic case for the US, this is it: Economic slowdown leads to dramatic rise in bankruptcies. Since the US consumer is swimming in debt up to his/her eyebrows, it won't take much of a slowdown to really grow business for bankruptcy lawyers. US banks, already dealing with bad loans from overseas (throw in some nasty Latin American action here) are put into the same state as Japanese banks, drowining in bad loans. Liquidity dries up, despite best efforts of Federal reserve. Ergo, you have a real recession. I don't think it will happen because the government is no longer running an ugly deficit (it will in the early part of the next century, but that's another story) and can flood the country with liquidity. Ergo, strawman scenario for recession refuted. What do you think? By the way, I did find a good thread on SI on banks. It's called Shorting the Big Banks. Good stuff. Logos