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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alan Buckley who wrote (10627)	9/9/1998 4:10:00 PM
From: ToySoldier	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Isnt it funny that Gate's and Maffei cant get their stories straight regarding who is their biggest competitor! Here is a quote from the following news release ''Our biggest competitor is about to launch an upgrade,'' Maffei said. ''We shot ourselves in the foot in terms of timing.'' Novell plans to announce on Monday that it's shipping Netware 5.0, the latest update to its network operating system, said Novell spokesman Blake Stowell. So, according to Gate's comments yesterday, it was IBM. Hmmmmm The whole News Release follows.... Bloomberg News September 9, 1998, 12:21 p.m. PT Microsoft CFO Sees Earnings Reaching $2.20 a Shr in Fiscal '99 Boston, Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Microsoft Corp. Chief Financial Officer Greg Maffei said earnings at the world's biggest software maker could reach $2.20 per diluted share for this fiscal year. Microsoft is forecast to earn $2.16 a share for the fiscal year ending June 30, 1999, according to First Call estimates. Maffei said Microsoft will continue to gain market share with its corporate software though he declined to specify how fast the business would grow. Microsoft had 36 percent of the market for server operating systems compared to 26.4 percent for Novell Inc. and 20.7 percent for Unix-based systems, based on licenses sold in 1997, according to International Data Corp. ''Two dollars and twenty cents sounds like a fair number, maybe it's a couple of pennies high,'' Maffei said at the S.G. Cowen 26th Annual Fall Technology Conference in Boston. Maffei was asked about the growth prospects for the corporate sector. ''Our biggest competitor is about to launch an upgrade,'' Maffei said. ''We shot ourselves in the foot in terms of timing.'' Novell plans to announce on Monday that it's shipping Netware 5.0, the latest update to its network operating system, said Novell spokesman Blake Stowell. Maffei said Microsoft will continue to enlarge its market share of database software, where Oracle Corp. leads the sector. The next upgrade of Microsoft's Sql will be called 7.0. ''Sql 7.0 will launch in the next few months and that's a very big positive,'' he said. Shares of Microsoft rose 2 1/32 to 104 in late trading.

To: Alan Buckley who wrote (10627)	9/9/1998 4:44:00 PM
From: Daniel Schuh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

18 months? Sheesh, it's not even a year since the consent decree action was filed. How, perchance, could the Sherman case have been in preparation for 18 months? As for the pattern of behavior, well, you have the conveniently timed Caldera and Sun suits going on, with Brad Chase's "urban legend" under examination and all that. Since you mention IBM, Alan, I have to bring up Bill's little revisionist history act on that front. Gates sees antitrust victory news.com He would, acting as his own attorney and everything. Addressing a conference on the Internet and the Media, Gates said that previous antitrust cases, particularly against International Business Machines, provided Microsoft with strong legal ammunition. "They [IBM] won all of those law suits. Some of those precedents are fantastic for us because they say that even a successful company can be innovative," Gates said. I guess I should ask Reggie about all these stunning precedents supplied by IBM. The story about IBM winning all their suits is somewhat at variance with my understanding. There was this big one with CDC where they gave away their service bureau business in a consent decree, and some older ones too. It's all out of context, though. Bill wouldn't lie to us, would he? Cheers, Dan.

To: Alan Buckley who wrote (10627)	9/9/1998 5:53:00 PM
From: Rusty Johnson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

I think you make some good points. Ed wanted five examples where Microsoft allegedly broke the law. I gave him more than five. I agree that in the end Microsoft will not be hurt. The majority of people seem content enough with Windows. People either like Bill Gates or hate him. Convictions on antitrust won't change their opinions. You can tell by the opinion pieces that people's minds are made up. No one is interested in the charges. Jason Pontin at Red Herring talks about monopolies, mergers and Staples/Office Depot. There is nothing illegal about monopolies. The case has nothing to do with monopolies or mergers. I'm just trying to point out that people writing editorials about Microsoft versus DOJ obviously haven't read the charges. People either believe Microsoft is guilty as sin or that they can do no wrong. I just don't see what the punishment would be anyway. You can't take away market share. Would it be the end of the world to put the Netscape Navigator icon on the desktop? I don't see how breaking them up into operating systems and miscellaneous hurts them. I think if Bill were smart he would work closely with companies in cooperation (win-win) instead of treating life like a game of Risk or Monopoly (win-destroy). If he were smart he'd avoid even the appearance of breaking the law. I believe he'd be even richer in the long run. But in this country if your rich ... you're smart. So in the United States he's smart after all. It doesn't even matter to me how it comes out. The internet, Open Source Software (Linux and Apache), JAVA, Jini etc. pose bigger challenges to Microsoft than the DOJ in my opinion. I plan on buying a 64 bit system (Alpha maybe) running Linux in the next few years. If I want to use Excel I'll run a Windows emulator. I happen to dislike the reliability of Windows. Linux spoils you. And for $29.95 people can install a commercial version on their hard drive to see for themselves whether or not they like it. I find Bill Gates lacking as a human being but that doesn't mean Microsoft stock won't double from here. I think they are vulnerable on the operating system front (in the long run) but will make up for lost revenues with banking, the internet, media ... who knows? But I'm rambling off topic. You hit the nail on the head when you said, "they just need to avoid a stunning defeat." And that is probably what will happen. In the end the people that love Microsoft and Bill Gates will still be in love. People that hate Bill Gates will still hate him. It's an interesting soap opera but I don't think you have anything to worry about. When government lawyers can't convict OJ ... Best of luck.