To: long-gone who wrote (18268 ) 9/9/1998 8:10:00 PM From: goldsnow Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116892
ANALYSIS-Japan easing sparks G7 coordination talk 11:30 a.m. Sep 09, 1998 Eastern LONDON, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Is the Group of Seven finally acting like a team to soothe the world's ravaged markets and economies? The talk in international financial markets on Wednesday was that coordinated monetary easings may actually be happening after Japan moved to lower a key interest rate to just 0.25 percent. Japan said it was not acting in concert with other nations, but analysts have their suspicions. The move comes only days after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan made remarks investors immediately read as opening the door to a cut in interest rates. ''It does hint possibly at coordination -- particularly after Greenspan's speech,'' said Bill O'Neill, strategist at HSBC Securities in London. ''It is an indication of the desperate state of the Japanese economy. It is the last option left to them.'' A stronger economy in Japan is seen as a lynchpin if Asia is to turn around its drifting economic ship, analysts said. ''It means the BOJ is a bit more confident that the Fed will do something and that it's not alone in fighting this war,'' said Jan Loeys, global fixed income strategist at J.P. Morgan in London. ''Finally the G7 is providing some stimulative conditions to offset what's happening in the emerging markets.'' Michael Hughes, director of Baring Asset Management in London, doubted the move was orchestrated internationally but said other cuts may be on the way. Coming just a day after investors bid Wall Street shares up five percent in celebration of Greenspan's kind words, Japan's rate cut had an immediate and strong effect in markets. Share markets in Europe rallied, major government bonds strengthened and the dollar surged against the yen. Analysts said Japan's rate cute would serve to reinforce the attractions of overseas markets, particularly U.S. Treasuries, for Japanese investors. Andrew Milligan, economic advisor at GCU Investment Management in London, thinks there are signs of an easier stance on monetary policy from Europe as well but doubts coordination. He cited comments from Bundesbank council member Olaf Sievert on Tuesday that the German central bank will maintain an ''absolutely steady hand'' before the start of European Monetary Union on January 1, 1999. ''That is actually the equivalent of an easing as people had really been still thinking there would be some increase in interest rates in the run up to EMU,'' Milligan said. ''The strong signal coming up over the last couple of days in line with Greenspan is: interest rates are on hold in Europe and that may become a cut in due course.'' The yen soared against the dollar, rising more than seven yen to touch a peak of 138.10 per dollar while the FTSE 100 staged a rally or 1.6 percent to neutral territory. And the three-month eurodollar strip, which shows U.S. interest rate expectations, moved lower by 0.06 percentage points on Wednesday and is now pricing in a 0.25-0.50 point cut before the end of the year. Euromarks showed similar gains at the longer end of the yield curve. But there was sharp debate as to whether lower global interest rates could by themselves stave off deflation and further falls on the world's fragile equity markets. ''We have a credit crunch and to turn it around you need not just lower interst rates, more in the U.S. than Japan, you need rescheduling of emerging market debt,'' said Hughes. O'Neill of HSBC said he thought a flow of Japanese funds into the U.S. and lower rates would help Wall Street but only to a point. ''The interest rate prospect will contain Wall Street's decline but I don't see a basis for Wall Street pulling out of the torper it is in at the moment. We still need a strong downward revision in earnings.'' ((James Saft, London newsroom +171 542 2734, ukinvestments.news+reuters.com)) Copyright 1998 Reuters Limited.