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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Phoenix who wrote (64530)	9/9/1998 8:56:00 PM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

re: it would be dissasterous if he didn't. One should never count money before it is hand... Greg

To: The Phoenix who wrote (64530)	9/9/1998 9:11:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Hi Gary! Exhibit I: Dell CFO sees component prices falling BOSTON, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Dell Computer Corp. Chief Financial Officer Tom Meredith said Wednesday that the personal computer distributor does not see firming component prices. ''We do not see any firming of pricing at Dell in the component front,'' Meredith said at the SG Cowen Fall Technology Conference in Boston. Meredith was responding to a question from SG Cowen analyst Richard Chu, who said there is a perception that component costs, such as monitors, memory and silicon, are not falling as fast as they once werep Meredith said capacity continues to be in excess of demand, forcing prices lower. Even in periods when demand met capacity, he said component prices continued to drop at the rate of 25 percent a year. Meredith, asked about sales growth in the Asia-Pacific region, said it will continue to be strong despite the economic crisis there, but he declined to be more specific. ''We still feel very strongly that the growth of Dell in terms of the back half of this year and beyond will be large,'' he said. Dell's revenues from Asia-Pacific grew 35 percent in the first quarter and 34 percent in the second quarter despite the slowdown, he said. __________________________________________ Note 1: "Asia demand strong"...... "Back half of year and BEYOND (demand large)" Note 2: Falling component prices and stabilizing ASP's mean (as you know) continued INCREASING MARGINS for Dell

To: The Phoenix who wrote (64530)	9/9/1998 9:16:00 PM
From: JRI	Respond to of 176387

Exhibit II: European PC sales 1998/99 Tuesday April 28, 7:26 am Eastern Time INTERVIEW-CONTEXT sees record Europe PC sales By Neil Winton, Science and Technology Correspondent LONDON, April 28 (Reuters) - Personal computer sales in Europe will hit record highs over the next two years, boosted by tumbling prices and demand for millennium bug-free products, British technology research company CONTEXT said on Tuesday. Consolidation would continue, with the biggest operators expanding their business at the expense of smaller players, said Emmanuel Lalloz, senior personal computer research analyst at CONTEXT. Price pressures make profits elusive in the race to sell PCs, which have become more like commodities. Profits will only be available to companies that manage their stocks carefully, and can sell high-margin products such as servers along with cut price PCs, Lalloz said in an interview. Last week saw Europe's personal computer shakeout continue. Siemens Nixdorf (SIEG.F) of Germany, Europe's leading personal computer maker, turned over most of its PC business to Taiwan's Acer Inc (2306.TW). Siemens had struggled for years to wring profit out of its computer unit. Acer will take over PC development and production from Siemens, make a Siemens' plant its main European production site, and supply computers that the German company will distribute under its own name. Last Friday, Tulip Computers NV (TULN.AS) of the Netherlands (TULN.AS), one of Europe's last independent makers of personal computers, sought court protection from its creditors. ''There will be more pressure on prices. In the next months Intel's (Corp (INTC - news)) new Celeron chip will allow manufacturers to sell and build at much lower prices. We will see more pressure on prices, especially on desk-tops. This won't stop, it will accelerate,'' Lalloz said. ''The top five will consolidate market share; they are growing much faster than the (average) market rate,'' Lalloz said. On Monday, CONTEXT announced its preliminary figures for 1998's first quarter, showing PC sales in western Europe jumped 21.1 percent to 5.57 million. COMPAQ Computer Corp (CPQ - news) of the U.S. strengthened its position as leader with a 14.8 percent market share. Second place International Business Machines Corp (IBM - news) accounted for 8.3 percent, followed by Dell Computer Corp (DELL - news; 7.8 percent), Hewlett-Packard Co ( HWP - news; 7.6 percent) and Siemens (5.6 percent). Prices were under pressure. ''CONTEXT has calculated that, in one year, desktop prices have, on average, gone down 18 percent in the UK and 22 percent in Germany. Over the same period, portable prices have decreased 14 percent in the UK and 16 percent in France.'' Fears over the millennium computer bomb will spur sales. Some computers programmed to read dates as two digits such as 98 or 87 may crash when 2000 dawns. ''Corporations want to make sure they have got rid of the Year 2000 bug by buying new PCs - it's the simplest, most cost effective way in the long-term - this is a big opportunity for the PC manufacturers,'' Lalloz said. Sales in 1998 and 1999 will explode. In January, CONTEXT had predicted growth of 17.4 percent for 1998 to 22.9 million PCs. ''I think if anything that was conservative. Now we see growth of between 18 and 20 percent for '98, much better than we expected one quarter ago. ''In 1999, we see 20 to 22 percent growth, there's a lot of potential out there. We won't be far short of selling 30 million PCs, probably around 28.5 million,'' Lalloz said. 1997's 19.7 million was the previous best ever year for PC sales in Europe.

To: The Phoenix who wrote (64530)	9/9/1998 9:42:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Exhibits III and IV & V: Industry consolidation and China sales Exhibit III: From the Wall Street Journal, Tuesday, September 8,1998....Page B9F "Big PC Makers in Taiwan Post Sizeable Gains" "....(There) has been a rise in the global market share of the four biggest U.S. computer makers- a trend that is having a big impact on Taiwan's PC industry. Compaq, IBM, Dell, and Hewlett-Packard controlled 38% of the world PC market in the second quarter, up from 33% a year earlier, according to IDG." (my note: BIG BARRIER TO COMPETITIVE ENTRY) "The increasing heft of the world's biggest PC selllers leads them to look for suppliers that can handle commensurately big orders.....The industry is consolidating globally". (Your commentary): Anyone can copy Dell's model (My commentary): Looks like the barriers to competition are getting greater, not easier Additional note: Other than Dell, the two largest direct computer manufacturers/distributors in the world are Gateway and Micron... I think you would agree that of all the companies with the possibility of copying Dell's success and model (and its effeciency), it would be these two.... Note 1: Both have a decreased presence in the large corporate sales arena (Dell's largest market). Gateway tried last year, got their lunch eaten, and is now trying to regroup....Micron's CEO, Joel Kirschner, an ex-Dell guy, as he became CEO in June.....one of his first orders of business was to announce that Micron was withdrawing from the large corporate marketplace.....Here is a guy that probably knows Dell inside and out.......would know all the tricks to the model....and yet, his first order of business is to run and hide in the large corporate market... Conclusion: Without knowing anything else, Dell must be extremely difficult to compete against in the large corporate space.....Evidence presented here (and elsewhere on the Dell thread in recent weeks) would point to the fact that it is becoming MORE DIFFICULT to compete against Dell, not less... Now, if Gateway and Micron can't/won't compete against Dell (strength)...you are stating that someone/some company, out of the blue, will be willing to do so.......Please let us know how this should occur.... (In another post, we can address IBM, HP, and Compaq's efforts....) _______________________ Exhibit IV: China PC sales.... Your contention: China's economy is falling apart My contention: China's PC sales are growing at a rapid rate The Economist, August 22-28......Y2K and China "There are currently 10 million PC's in China, and sales are increasing at 50% per year" My summary: China PC sales are strong.....If you still doubt about the future, go read the recent Fortune cover story on Andy Grove's trip to China (came out about 3 weeks ago).....It is indisputable that PC sales in China are going to be huge. _______________________________________

To: The Phoenix who wrote (64530)	9/9/1998 9:58:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Exhibit V and VI: Japan sales and consolidation Your contention: Japan sales will not increase My contention: Japan sales will increase "Europe and U.S. growth continues apace, but PC demand in Asia down again" September 9, 1998: 1:13 p.m. ET "The growth picture in Japan is expected to improve a bit in this quarter, IDC said, with unit volume up about 2 percent over the prior year, after second-quarter unit shipments dropped 14 percent." For the total year, unit volume in Japan is expected to decline 4 percent. __________________________________________________________________ Exhibit VI:Consolidation Note: The prediction for strong growth this quarter (whose view I know you also share).... Largest vendors favored The shift toward lower prices and more efficient business models favors the largest vendors, IDC said, since they are the ones with the broadest product lines and geographical scope. Apple (AAPL), with a strong product lineup led by the fast-selling iMac, is the vendor IDC expects will enjoy the greatest growth rates in third-quarter unit shipments. Not far behind will be Dell Computer (DELL), which has seen impressive growth in the product and customer segments of its business as well as in several countries, said IDC. Dell's chief rival Compaq (CPQ) is also expected to see a much better quarter as the company returns to higher factory shipment growth, especially in commercial desktops, and given its strong consumer business. And based on strong U.S. portable shipments, IDC said Hewlett-Packard ( HWP), Gateway (GTW) and Toshiba are likely to see share gains as well.

To: The Phoenix who wrote (64530)	9/9/1998 10:05:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Gary: Re: Your comparison of Dell and Cisco (last Friday) Although you made some good points, your numbers for Dell were wrong...You may want to revisit (wherever) you got your original data....You understated Dell's growth, and, accordingly, some of your arguments do not jive... You are right that the argument here is Dell's future growth...I have yet to see where you make a compelling argument that Dell will not grow at a rapid rate (50+ annual growth) for the forseeable future... What data have you presented to refute this? What is your (overall argument(s) for this? Could you list point by point? Sorry for the numerous posts...Thought they might be easier to swallow...