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Technology Stocks : Vodafone-Airtouch (NYSE: VOD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pluvia who wrote (1198)	9/10/1998 2:18:00 AM
From: Ibexx	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3175

Pluvia, Let me give you a lesson: the good, professional shorts know how to find stocks traded below their 200d ema as candidates, and that's rule #1. Good luck, Ibexx

To: Pluvia who wrote (1198)	9/10/1998 9:54:00 AM
From: Mark Marcellus	Respond to of 3175

Steve, I don't have to check your history. I've encountered you on several threads dating back to the TMF TLTK thread and even some before that. I'm well aware of your ability to spot overvalued situations, which is why you got my attention when you came to the Airtouch folder making bearish noises. Having said that, I don't find the arguments you put forward for shorting ATI to be particularly compelling. That's at least partly due to a difference in focus. I'm no good at the short term game, so I don't play it. When I buy a stock it's because I believe it's a good business with sound fundamentals selling at an attractive price. Once I buy into a business like that I just continue to hold it unless I feel the long term picture has changed. In the case of ATI, I believe the future in telephony is digital cellular and I believe that ATI will be a leading participant in that future. When looking at the long term, I also believe that it's a mistake to think of cellular phones as a high end item. I expect to see dramatic cost savings as digital attains critical mass, to the point that it will drive other options (including standard POTS) out of the market. Despite my optimism regarding digital's future, I'm also painfully aware that I stepped somewhat outside my circle of competence when I invested in a cellular company. That's why I hold ATI a little uneasily, and why I'm always eager to hear about flaws in ATI's long term business model. Stepping even further outside my circle of competence, I must admit that I'm puzzled by your reasoning in shorting ATI. Sure you can make an argument that it's overvalued, and the short term may be choppy. That's also true for a lot of other stocks out there, many of them with much less sanguine prospects than Airtouch. Based on the price targets you mentioned, you're looking at about a 15% return from a short at yesterday's close. That seems a little low to me, especially when you factor in the risk of a takeover bid driving up the price before you have a chance to cover. Your short may work out quite well for you though, given the news from Globalstar this morning. Congrats on your performance over the last 90 days. Keep it up for a couple more years and you'll be richer than Buffett ;-). FWIW, Mark