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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pass pass who wrote (2836)	9/10/1998 11:25:00 AM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

pass pass, It is always hard to value tech companies because their principal assets ride the elevators. You have to assess their intellectual property, patents, talent pool, etc. Right now you have to assume that their engineers are probably talking to headhunters. And when they go, what's left? The class action suit has to dampen the spirits of potential acquirers, who don't like legal clouds on the horizon. And these suits take time to settle. I don't see Ciena as a going concern on its own. It needs the umbrella of a more diversified equipment manufacturer like NT, LU, TLAB, CSCO or UNPH. DWDM business has a bright future but is still in its infancy and there is alot of volatility, especially at times like the present. Anything is possible at an auction but it is unlikely that we will see the re-emergence of an enthusiasm approaching that of Mr. Birke. At about 1x sales I may be willing to go long. I'm not willing to catch the falling knife though. Maybe look for a January bounce in mid-December. But there is so much uncertainty in the air, the shorts will have the upper hand. Sam