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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sea_urchin who wrote (908)	9/10/1998 7:43:00 AM
From: sea_urchin	Respond to of 81871

Further to #907!! Unfortunately, at the turns of a trend, the statistical assumption, that the distribution is still continuing along the trend, is incorrect. The "population" has, in fact, changed. So, it is left to the subjective opinion of the operator to decide whether the trend is continuing or not. And, the sooner he can do this the better. This is why TA is still an art --- and not simply a mechanical process. Clearly, the fundamental difficulty is to determine whether the trend is going to continue -- or it isn't. Once one can do that then everything else falls into place. Including the statistics! So, Jim, in conclusion, you are right that a rubber ruler would be just as accurate as the sigma curves. Or, just as inaccurate. In the circumstances, the most accurate would still be a straight ruler with the graph drawn on a semi-log axis. At least, that will tell one about the trend --- maybe! The only trouble here is that most everyone uses a ruler! Regards Searle