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To: Tim Luke who wrote (54001)	9/10/1998 12:06:00 PM
From: gbh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

Tim, re: Clinton, my prediction. Clinton will not be impeached (BTW does anyone have a link for the Starr report supposedly to be posted on the net), but he will be censured (essentially just a reprimand). Why? because Republicans would rather run against the lamest of lame ducks, instead of an incumbent. Isn't it ironic now that its the Democrats that are essentially calling for his head, rather than the Republicans. Politics, sheesh. gary

To: Tim Luke who wrote (54001)	9/10/1998 12:17:00 PM
From: JH	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 61433

OT- what the yield curve is telling us Historically, when the yield curve (spread between the Fed fund and the longer maturity Treasurys) inverts, there is a 90% probability that a recession appears about 18 months down the road. Currently, we have a yield curve that is very flat, but not quite inverted. Normally, earnings growth slows and stops along with an inverted yield curve, and markets recover/rally when the the yield curve steepens from a Fed rate cut designed to accomodate a recessionary economy. Based on the health of the domestic market at this moment, an easing by the Fed is still premature (positive slope on the yield curve). However, Treasurys are definitely pricing in the possibility of an easing (some say, as a TEMPORARY remedy) to stabilize the critically ill global markets. Based on these expectations, the yield curve in the US has actually inverted in the middle, but not in the long end (a very rare occurence). The yield on the 5yr note is lower than either the 3-month bill or the 10 yr note! England today upheld their status quo on their high interest rates. European equity markets responded with a groan - collectively down an average of 4.4%. Mexico is down 5.6%; Brazil is down 11.36% ! Global sentiment is very very fragile at this moment, and the world is practically begging for a coordinated rate cut to extract itself from a swirling vortex of what may turn out to be a depression. IMHO, I believe that the US large cap indices will shortly plummet once again, only to be saved from the brink of collapse by a temporary Fed easing (1987 style). Hang onto your cash !