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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (14805)	9/10/1998 1:35:00 PM
From: dougjn	Respond to of 152472

Completely agree with you. There is much more potential for bad news than good news. Good news will really consist of the absense of bad news for some while. Which will take some time. Even good earnings numbers on individual issues will be viewed as a half empty glass these days. While any disappointment will kill all but the most already massacured stocks. A disappointment in Intc or Dell, or even Compaq, would be killing. (Yesterday I all but completely reversed my moderate equity buildup of Friday after the reversal and Tuesday when it pulled back a bit. Made a little trading profit there. Unfortunately, the one thing I didn't blow out was a partial position in G*. So that turns from a probably favorable event exposure into the worst possible event disaster. Ouchhhhh. At least I did't swing very hard on that one, not too much. Restrained myself.) Doug

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (14805)	9/10/1998 2:09:00 PM
From: DaveMG	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

Ramsey, Not to nitpick but I actually think the noise is getting pretty loud and impossible to forget about, especially when future fundamentals are so unknowable.This calculation that analysts such as Abbey Cohen make that compares interest rates with projected discounted earnings for the entire mkt and then determines where the price should be years down the road is based on so many assumptions as to be laughable IMO. Buying begets buying, and selling selling.It seems to me that the mkt has to hold at present levels otherwise things are going to take a serious turn for the worse, which is what I expect will happen, if not today then soon. Lower interest rates may act as a palliative but I don't believe they will be enough to quickly counteract all of the negative forces simultaneously affecting global economies and business especially in the absence of credible leadership in many important places in the world at a time when psychological issues such as investor confidence are so critical. I especially don't understand why one should own stocks if what bulls are hoping will save them are lower interest rates. Is it too late to buy bonds? Inflation is certainly not a credible threat. People have also almost forgotten Y2k amidst the present turmoil.Then there's the EURO, which I think will be good for European business but am expecting to be a difficult transition, politically and economically.It's hard to find a place to hang ones hat in the middle of all this. Best wishes dave