Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Phoenix who wrote (64695)	9/10/1998 5:00:00 PM
From: JRI	Respond to of 176387

Gary- I won't bust your chops on your simple math mistake....I see that my associates have done my dirty work for me <g>..But why dont you go back and recalculate, and then post your conclusions...some of your (previously posted) conclusions should change..... But I do need to address one of your posts: You wrote: <Tell you what, I have a better idea. You go ahead and rely on your numbers and I'll rely on mine. I truely and honestly don't have the time to pull up URL's and data to post here.> Gary, none of us have the time to pull up URL's and post data...My time is just as valuable as yours....(as everyone's)....The credibility of this thread shrinks, though, when it is reduced to everyone just posting whatever falls in their heads, and we are unwilling to substantiate their position with outside, known sources (when challenged)...One of the great benefits of this thread for me is that my knowledge of Dell has increased exponentially because others have forced me to substantiate my positions....Like we are doing to you... < I know this makes my position suspect and my posts useless, but I don't care at this point.> Cop out. << You should do you own DD and evaluate all the numbers from all the sources for all countries - not just Japan, and China.>> I already do that, and I didnt just post information concerning Japan and China....and I, unlike you, stated my conclusions (and then showed you upon which sources some of these conclusions were based) .....Although you state the following: < As for Europe there are multiple sources you should seek out including IDC, Dataquest, Vertical Systems, Del-Oro, Yankee Group, Rising Star, etc. etc.. > I am not convinced that you have researched Dell any further than listing these names in this one post....I am sure you know your way around tech, but surely you must realize how utterly useless it is to simply post these names (as a substantiation to your position)...all this shows me is that you recognize these names... If I understand you correctly, you are expected a sizeable decrease in demand for Dell's products sometime (early) next year...so far, the only proof that you have listed is YOUR OPINION that you believe that other companies are currently, and will continue to narrow Dell's JIT-BTO advantage....although you have not gone into specifics as to who, and how much this is occurring.... I am trying to draw you out, Gary....Maybe you have an interesting point of discussion here. But none of us will ever know unless you are able to go further down the road of reason as to how/when....Let me bait the argument a bit...I'll throw out a few crumbs... Let's look at the top contenders: Micron Gateway HP IBM Compaq As I stated in my last post, Micron and Gateway would be the most logical choices to attempt (and be successful) at emulating Dell's model (in completion), effeciency,etc....I believe my post last night briefly addressed these two.....Although it is possible that these two could mount some sort of credible challenge to Dell (sometime) in the future, the facts are that the gap has grown larger between them and Dell in Dell's key markets... HP has stated on numerous (recent) occasions that the priority now (and for the forseeable future) will be on profit (and not marketshare)...Some board members are publicly questioning whether HP should even be selling PC's (seeing Business Week, mid-July, article on HP)....Without going into all I know about HP, I dont see them closing any gaps with Dell in the forseeable future.. IBM....Has similar problems to HP in many ways....will have to make similiar decisions....Ironically, the latest issue of Business Week has a one-pager on IBM in which the author recommends IBM sells off their PC and workstation businesses.. CPQ- No significant comment here...much more complicated issue...but even CPQ's biggest supporters (Rudedog) will admit that CPQ has only/will only tweak their model..and are not really building a model anything close to Dell's J-I-T, B-T-O.. Outside of the companies listed above, I am assuming that you believe (as I) that any other company in the PC universe (either in existence or not) could not mount any sort of credible challenge to Dell in the next 2 years that could slow down Dell's growth...If you do believe this could occur, be specific about how you see this unfolding.... Also, think about this, if Micron or Gateway (or some other) were moderately successful at closing the gap with the Dell...would this really mean the end of Dell's high growth? Or could it mean that Dell AND this unnamed other would grow at fast rates (at the expense of all others)...Think about that... (BTW- What I have posted above is not at all my complete argument, but it is certainly more than what you have posted to date...Give us more of your ideas in detail) Finally, you did tick me off by saying my data was faulty and shoddy. Thought that was uncalled for. And.........Looks like you bought in at a good spot...With Oracle's earnings announcement and Intel (good) pre-announcement, I would be surprised if we dont see a bounce in the techs tomorrow... Cheers...