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To: JMD who wrote (14807)	9/10/1998 1:38:00 PM
From: Jeff Vayda	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

JMD: Did they look good at $X? Have the fundamentals changed? If not, they must by default look good at $Y. G*/Loral: no change in fundamentals- a delay in profits, that is all - slide to the right, no worries. Q: May or may not be able to stand against the political winds - no change here. (dont follow the next two but just from what I pick up) Ciena: Major loss of contracts - looks like a fundamental change Tlabs: guilt by association with Ciena? Hang in there, is Tim's compost pile available? I'll bring the Capt Morgan's Private Stock. Jeff Vayda

To: JMD who wrote (14807)	9/10/1998 1:45:00 PM
From: Don S.Boller	Respond to of 152472

Surfer: THE NEWS FOLLOWS THE TREND................................. If this were a raging bull market, bad news like today's for G* and associates would cause some "easing" BUT NOT mass exodus. In a BEAR MARKET (which we have been in for some time now) investors are looking for "excuses' to sell...the further down the market goes - the less of an excuse will be needed. The names change over the years - but, human nature DOES NOT. (I bailed Q some time back - which I posted). That doesn't make me prescient...only that I understand when the tide is coming in (bull) and going out (bear)......... The best to all, Sincerely, Don

To: JMD who wrote (14807)	9/10/1998 1:47:00 PM
From: dougjn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

Well, I took a hit in G* today, bad. Although at least it was only a partial position. I had blown it out along with almost everything else a couple of weeks ago, but then went back into it a bit Friday at what then looked like a real cheap price, 15+, playing the probability of a favorable launch as outweighing the overall market risk. Besides, I figured Starr wouldn't hit until Friday. Oh well.... At least it was a fairly small position, relatively. Still hurts like heck. As does comparing my portfolio value in mid July with my cash position now. WAS up huge. A general comment. Whether or not you think this is the bottom, don't make the mistake of getting permanently out of tech. Reconsider which tech, etc, etc. And maybe it makes sense to get out for a while. That depends. But live by the sword, die by the sword. Or rather, die by the sword, only become reborn by the sword. By which I mean, don't ride the hyper beta stocks only in the wrong direction. Of course I'm using this opportunity to talk to myself as well. Now personally, I think this is not a good market environment for buy and hold except conceivably for a small part of a portfolio that truly does still have deep profits in it. It also doesn't seem smart to me to sell at bottoms. We are probably nearing at least a temporary bottom. Sell on the rallies. Like Tuesday, end of day. There will be more. To me however it seems obvious, as it does to Ramsey, that there are a lot more downside probabilities than upside for a while. So we will oscillate lower, I think, overall. Specifically, the Clinton business won't resolve itself this week or next. At the very least. It will get nastier, probably. Lots of that is probably now in, but probably not all. Especially if it looks, at least for a while, that we are going to a full Senate donnybrook. I'm not even sure the market will like the prospect of overwhelming Repub. dominance of Congress, strange as that might seem. Problems with funding things like IMF, protectionism, isolationism, etc. We are in warnings season, starting next week. Any bad news will hurt lots in this environment, even if its not one of our fav stocks that warns. Now when we start going into REPORTING season, basically first half of October, there is a much better shot for individual issues to rally depending on their results. Such as perhaps the Q. Maybe by then the Clinton business will have gone on hold til after the election or something. That's my best take. Sitting here in cash, but bloodied none the less. Having said all this, some sort of rally as early as tomorrow wouldn't surprise me, given the last two days. People will say, for example, that Clinton's departure is completely discounted. I doubt if all the mess is, but the supposition will probably give us some rally of some sort soon. Doug

To: JMD who wrote (14807)	9/10/1998 1:56:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Are we having fun? Well, I didn't get white knuckles. Funny how life works out. There I was at the apogee, laughing and having fun, satellites up in orbit. Off to lunch to celebrate and I was being read to from a launch script in some damn Russian bunker. Believing it. Them pretending they are reporting from the rocket's data. Next thing I know the bloody roller coaster has come off the rails at the top, before I even had a chance to get white knuckles on the way down. These Big Dippers sure are dodgy appliances at times. Chaos theory says that things can be quite big. In fact, can be as big as we like to imagine. Which means, just as the New Paradigm says things can get hugely amazing, things can always get worse. Things are never so bad that they can't get worse. Fractals come to mind again too. So here we are, markets packing a sad, Japan's banking and pension expectations to hell. Russia in a shambles. Korea and all of those ones building buildings and expectations which nobody wants on borrowed money. Indonesia in a BIG hole. FUD all around the world. Okay, so what does Globalstar do? Crashes a rocket fall of billions of $$$ into the drink or Siberia or wherever. Oh well, at least Taupo hasn't erupted yet and there might not be a comet impact for a month or two. No viral hugely infective disease or nuclear war either - those are probably for Xmas. SurferM, if you find the secret to life, just pop it in the thread here. Life's a giggle. A bit of a Big Dipper too I notice. I guess Alan Green$pan will consider printing a bit of money. But as jfred said 2 years ago, that might not be enough to hold the dyke. Now, what was that SuperD theory I had. I had my margin gamble at a low level to allow for just such events. But I didn't REALLY think it would happen. Oh well, I guess that's what prudence and caution are for. But I'm banging along the limit now! This is the bottom. For me anyway. Nowhere to go but up. A confluence of unfortunate events is the normal course of events I suppose, coming along every now and then. SurferM, bright people and others are all more like smart chickens than God. Check out your hairy arms and bum if you want confirmation. If you are lucky you don't get plucked and turned into lunch. Smart or not. See Forrest Gump for example. Ramsey, I can imagine you grinning from ear to ear. Confucian bloody sage! Enjoy your shopping spree when you finally deign to pick a few plums. SurferM, I'm all in favour of your "So did our brains get warped by our cyber-collaboration?" I reckon that is the number one risk and I've always been aware of it and always deliberately maintained my own opinions - preferring to be outside the crowd looking in, than running with the herd. Something to do with who is holding the sherry bottle and who is being herded to be fleeced, which we see a lot of here. Anyway, it's not time to get out of bed yet, so I'll go back. Enjoy the thrills and spills folks. Life's a giggle, Mqurice $80? Up Schitt Creek without a paddle.