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To: DaveMG who wrote (14823)	9/10/1998 3:35:00 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

".......And the rockets red glare..." Huray, YAH YAH YAH. I hope their right. I feel the truth lies in the middle of Ramsey's opinion and the last post. I think we tread water for 6-12 months and as thes issues resolve themselves move higher. I dont know where you live Ramsey, but business is just not slowing down(in USA). As long aspeople are making money and working things will be stabile here. Its not like the 80's or 70's where people are being tossed out of work. The Baby Boomers are an investement force to be rekoned with. I think that companies that make earnings will go up and those that dont will go down. This is now a stock pickers market. Buy the dips sell the rallies!

To: DaveMG who wrote (14823)	9/10/1998 3:41:00 PM
From: dougjn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

The most important reason why I'm still chicken little2 is that I think the market is still in denial. Most discussion is how far off the highs we are. And on technical analysis. Very little is on whether stocks are now fairly priced for the uncertainty that lies ahead. The generals in particular it seems to me are not. E.g., Dell, Csco, Intc, Lu etc. The generals certainly do not have a significant profit slowing, much less a recession, priced in. Since no one really knows for sure what will happen, but there is plenty of risk, perhaps a probability of a sorta bad slowing profit result, and some risk of a recession or even a sustained and significant one, its hard to argue that stocks are not overvalued. At least the leaders. And its is very hard for the secondaries to make sig. up moves until the generals at least stop going down. Seems to me. Having said all that, some sort of rally seems likely to me tomorrow. Along the lines of...ok, this Clinton thing. So what's the worst. So he's forced to resign. So what. Then people will start to figure he ain't gonna go easy. Or a least might not. Who knows? Meanwhile, there's always Hong Kong or Brazil or somewhere else to devalue. Brazil is REALLY getting hammered today. Brazil's liquid bellweather, TBR, is down about 16% today. Doug

To: DaveMG who wrote (14823)	9/10/1998 4:39:00 PM
From: dougjn	Respond to of 152472

My main problem with that post is that its take on market valuation is just plain wrong. I would indeed be much more sanguine, and probably be going long, if the market was indeed currently discounting a recession. It is not. There is no way that at 19x trailing earnings the S&P 500, much less the generals among them, are discounting a recession. That is the problem. Because there is a significant chance of one. Although by no means a certainty. The other thing glaringly wrong with it is the statement to the effect that because LatAm is mostly into US banks, they will manage the situation. Well, that didn't work so hot in the 1980's. Much of their debt is now traded bonds, etc. these days as well. Though lots of bank exposure. Brazil is getting very close to the breaking point, seems to me. They are burning through their foreign exchange at an alarming rate. Things might stabalize. But I don't see what we can really do about it, one way or another. Unlike with the Mexican crisis, much of the world is now falling apart simultaneously. The IMF is tapped out. And in this environment, Clinton can hardly have Rubin tap some sludge fund in the Treasury and do half of it themselves, without Congressional authorization. And lets say Rubin and co. decide, in their heart of hearts, that Paul Krugman's (of MIT) notion (see the latest Fortune) that capital controls, temporarily, are better than wholesale devaluations, and may be a last resort. That idea is absolute anathma with the Repub. pure market capitalism crowd. Now ordinarily Rubin has enough credibility with Wall St., and Clinton enough persuasiveness with the public and foreign opinion, that they just might make the notion fly and receive some sort of market support, on a wait and see basis. Or at least lack of horrific attack. As long as it was temporary, etc. Now I don't know that is the way to go. But I'm using it as an illustration. Bold initiatives out of Washington are out for quite some while, I fear. Which the market knows, and doesn't like. One little bit. We've lost our safety belts. Doug

To: DaveMG who wrote (14823)	9/10/1998 7:45:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 152472

Dave, the article you posted is an excellent example of the type of opinions floating out there. While I think it is good to have as much information as possible, we do have to be careful as to what we are reading. There is no need to analyze your article in great details. Let me just use one point. Capital is not the issue in Japan. Its problems are related to demographics and tax rates. If Japan's leaders initiate a credible economic plan in the next few months (as we believe they will), the economies of Southeast Asia may grow in 1999. Whoever made the above statement just told me that he/she is clueless about Japan. I can only assume the rest of the author's opinions are based on equal level of ignorance. The author obviously were never introduced to Jack Schlitt by Northforce. This article is what I called "noise". On the other hand, there are two pieces of good information out today, Intel's positive press release and ORCL's earnings report. The answers that I am looking for here are: 1) Is this yesterday's business and not tomorrow's. If yes and the market reacts positively, it is an opportunity to sell on rally. If no, then I will be looking for confirmation that we have hit bottom. 2) Is this unique to the two companies or are they industry wide? If it is industry wide, then the bull camp is correct that US and Europe are immuned to global problems. While the rest of the world crash and burn, we should be on course for record breaking growth. In the mean time, I remain sincerely, chicken little. Ramsey