Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Microcap & Penny Stocks : Globalstar Telecommunications Limited GSAT -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Quilty who wrote (1982)	9/10/1998 4:53:00 PM
From: mmeggs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29987

I don't know if this will pull you off the ledge, but it made me feel better. The June 10Q has G* sitting with $414 million in cash. While I know some of that, hopefully not all, is already pledged for other purposes, I would hope it would at least mitigate the possible need for debt-financing and/or extended servicing because of the delay. Peter Lynch was recently quoted as saying he doesn't know which way the next 1000 pts. will be, but he does know which way the next 7,000 will be. I try to console myself that this is just "a sideways move." (Thanks Jeff Vayda) Pass the bottle. mmeggs

To: Quilty who wrote (1982)	9/10/1998 5:28:00 PM
From: dougjn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29987

I personally would sell on any rally. Here's why. The fundamentals still look quite good. IF the revised business plan goes off without any significant hitch. The additional debt needed to fund the revised plan and the delay hurts a bit, as does the pushout in positive cash flow. What really hurts is the loss of cushion. Anything more going wrong raises a real specter of actual equity dilution. Whether as a necessary inducement to additional debt, or by further partner contributions, etc. In this environment additional risk will not be thought of well. Additionally, I think there is a real risk that Iridium falls on its face. It is not clear to me that their system really works as intended yet. Or that they can fix it. I.e., their space switching may not be working, or at least working consitently and quickly. Only 75% call completions last they said anything. "Software" blamed. What if software can't fix hardware problems up there in space. Or what if at its price, and with its buggy start, I* looks by March of next year to be attracting very much fewer customers than projected nor needed. All of that may be, and probably would be, a problem unique to I, and its technical and price problems. But it sure wouldn't do its price any good. Or G or Lor's price. Articles about pie in the sky satellite systems, etc. Bull market babies. And the like. On the other hand, lets say I* gets its problems fixed fast and by Nov. 1 starts getting rave notices in the press. Starts signing people up fast. I think the markets would think that was both good and bad for G. Maybe there is demand. But I will have proven itself, and G* will not have. It's whole system virtually is still to be lifted. And who knows what IT's technical problems might be even if it does get aloft. And besides, won't the I* lead prove fatal, or at least take a long time to overcome? Now you and I have very good answers to all of this. I'm talking Mr. Market. Mr. Mutual Fund manager. And what is the impact of a Soyuz blowing up, even if for someone else? Or a Delta? I just don't see much good news until either i) a couple of launches have gone up without too much delay or ii) a raging bull market psychology returns. Since I don't expect ii) for six months at the absolute best, I'm tending to await i). Or at least the approach of i). Because there is a real good chance of significantly lower prices and the opportunity that presents in the meantime. Anyway, that's my 2 cents right now. Could change my mind tomorrow. An $8+ price during some crash, for example, would certainly get my attention. Doug