Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bananawind who wrote (14835)	9/10/1998 5:02:00 PM
From: dougjn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

My opinion re: forcasting or timing the market is that it only makes any sense is during major inflection points. Which we haven't had since 1991. Until a few weeks ago. Or perhaps months ago, if you could see as clearly as Ramsey. It is a bad idea during most corrections in bull markets. It will lead almost always to missing more than you gain. And excessive cautiousness has the same effect. However, it was not stupid to be out of the equity markets, at least for the most part, during the stagflation of the 70's. Nor was it impossible to forcast that was a good idea. What is impossible, except by luck, is to get out at the top, or get in at the bottom. Which is why only big moves, or very long term down ones, are worth trying for. My personal feeling is that there is very little chance of a consistently resumed bull market for some while. And a very real chance of a significantly down market from here. With lots of rallies and dips in between. Accordingly I think we are in a trading market, by and large. I didn't miss all this decline by any means. I missed about half on the averages from the July highs, and a bit less than that in my own portfolio. Basically, I'm buying when I think the market gets really short term oversold, on deep dips. Depending a bit on what is going on. And selling during strong rallies. Without trying to catch all of either. I don't think the train is leaving the station to the upside anytime soon. Overall, at least. The big issue for the Q is 1) will the Sept. Q really surpise to the upside given the continuing severe overall pressure in Korea, Chile, elsewhere; and 2) can the forward guidance really be real positive, and believeable, given the above. And given G*'s event as well. I really don't know either way. Greg is very reassuring, and he knows the company vastly better than I. All the general signs are the other way. Doug