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Strategies & Market Trends : Graham and Doddsville -- Value Investing In The New Era -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Berney who wrote (758)	9/10/1998 11:15:00 PM
From: Freedom Fighter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1722

Berney, >>I would agree with you that many of the blue chips are still seriously over-valued by any historical measurement. However, I would note that many of the financial stocks are now trading at close to the bottom of their long-term, monthly trading channels.<< Most banks and brokers have traded at between 1 and 2 times book value depending on inflation, interest rates, the general investment environment and other factors over the long haul. It is a rare occasion that they went higher (except for a few exceptional cases and companies). Almost every time they went to 2 times book or higher it turned out to be a bad time to get in. In this cycle some went to 4 or 5 times book. Citibank was in that range. Now it's back to about 2 times book. I can't tell you exactly what they are worth. Especially now because they are such a black hole as far as derivatives and the global picture. But I bet that many of them go back to book value or below sometime in my lifetime. It's still a boom/bust industry despite some efforts to change the revenue mix. You have to get them when the near term fundamentals stink. I've made a lot of money in the finanials that way. That's when I'll be all over them like white on rice! In the mean time I'll find something else. I like to feel like I'm stealing before I let the moths out of my wallet. Wayne