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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dayuhan who wrote (6343)	9/11/1998 6:33:00 PM
From: Stitch	Respond to of 9980

Steven, <<Mahathir seems mainly concerned with foreign reaction>> Domestic political concerns are less of a problem for Mahatir right now, even with the potential schism that might be produced by the Anwar sacking. He has already been supported by the press, clergy, and the major party components. Mahatir simply controls too much IMO for there to be much of a challenge. I think Anwar had very bad advice and moved too hastily when he mounted a political excursion to move Mahatir out during the UMNO meeting a couple of months ago. When the UMNO youth president spoke angrily about cronyism and corruption to the assembly in a thily veiled attack on Mahatir, Anwar wrote Mahatir a note saying "You have lost the support of the people". This turned out to be a gross under estimate of Mahatir's resolve and political strength. I think if Mahatir does arrest Anwar he will do so with alleged details leaked to cast deeper aspersions on him. Since Mahatir controls the press, the TV, etc. he could probably pull this off with little effort. The locals, in the main, are Mahatir sycophants IMO. (This discounts the rumor that Anwar has evidence of wrong doing on the part of Mahatir. If Anwar has that evidence then, the more likely outcome is that there would be a stand off with Anwar politically isolated). Among the youth there is alarm and discouragement (if my two sole sources from the younger crowd are correct) but I do not sense that there is any capability of mobilizing a protest of any significance. Again, all of the above is simple conjecture. I truly am not a qualified political risk analyst. Best, Stitch