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Technology Stocks : Primestar/TCI Satellite (TSATA) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Noel who wrote (71)	9/11/1998 10:19:00 AM
From: JDCFA	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 442

Noel, I agree with your assessments on USSB, DISH, and LOR. USSB will rally if the satellite industry rallies, the rising tide theory. I don't believe there is enough there to make it outperform, especially if the economy recesses given their service is a premium service. DISH does have momentum in subscriber adds. Question here is a fundamental one. Will DISH gain enough cash flow to cover its relatively expensive debt structure and network. Primestar is competing with just one leased bird right now. DISH has very expensive birds sitting at orbital slots with limited reach. If the Primestar deal passes the DOJ, they will have four unused birds. 3 on the ground 1 at 119d. If further problems develop with GMH and or DISH (both have problems) these birds could be worth some $$ given the time lag it takes to construct and launch. In the case of LOR. They chose against using the more expensive Delta 2 rocket and used Zenith instead. A risky strategy that backfired. Puts high pressure on future launches. Investors got complacent after Iridium's failure free launch program. Complacency costs $$. Risk/Reward favors TSATA over all satellite plays right now. Neither DISH nor GMH have the upside potential. Be Well.