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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: vin kirplani who wrote (2892)	9/11/1998 12:14:00 AM
From: bits	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

Ciena: I think it's simple. Ciena is vulnerable to short sellers. There is some negative news from Ciena, they have only a few customers, lots of stock to short, so traders create and embellish negative news. It is a bear market, bad news (rumor or not) scares investors (Remember War of the Worlds). No buyers, some short sellers, stock goes down. Shouldn't have been in the 90s in the first place. Talk it up, talk it down. Bull & bear Greed and fear. Keep in mind that enough money can move any stock higher or lower regardless on the fundamentals of the company. Create margin calls, stock goes down more, shorts have more money to force it down more. Same deal on the upside. Shorts were killed for the last 8 years, now the longs are getting killed. How to play this? That is up to you.

To: vin kirplani who wrote (2892)	9/11/1998 12:43:00 AM
From: Doughboy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

A cautionary note: On the TLAB thread they posted a statement by a TLAB spokesman that TLAB was not aware of the contract loss to Pirelli before the renegotiation. While not so important in and of itself, it does directly contradict CIEN's statement yesterday. If CIEN and TLAB are suddenly not seeing eye-to-eye, there is a real danger that TLAB will walk. I'm still long, but I would be hard-pressed to play the spread again having been burned twice now. Doughboy.

To: vin kirplani who wrote (2892)	9/11/1998 12:45:00 AM
From: Gary Korn	Respond to of 12623

Someone who knows what I'm missing: could you please respond? Vin, Yes, it's obvious: For every potential contract CIEN loses that is worth $66MM spread over 3 years (i.e. $22MM/year), the buyout price of CIEN decreases by about $2.2Billion (your numbers went from 7.1B to 4.9B to 2.7B). In other words, every $1 of lost potential contracts means $100 in lost buyout value. This near 100-channel multiplication of impact is due to the 96-channel LU vaporware effect. Gary Korn