Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : LSI Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: uu who wrote (14910)	9/11/1998 2:18:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

Addi: I really am not sure but I have noticed that we rarely get total agreement with all 5 of those indicators. Also prices falling is the natural state for this industry <g>. Looking at some of the past data for the semi-custom segment: - Inventories have been building or being maintained very strongly in each of the past 4 months when the build/maintain numbers have been 70%, 86%, 80%, 90% and the reduction numbers have been 20%, 10%, 5%, 0%. Prior to these 4 months there was a weak upwardly positive trend - the average B/M was 56 and the average reduction% was 28% in the first five months of the year.)I think it is fair to say that we have a very strong building/maintenace of semi-custom chip inventory going on. - Prices have always been going down this year <g>. Except for what looks like fluke data in July, the highest% indicating a rise in prices was 17% and most of the time the %ge indicating an increase is small - less than 10% or so on average. There is one negative here in that there definitely is a pick up in the %ge indicating a drop in prices - in the first q only around 9% on average indicated a drop in prices, in the 2nd q around 50% indicated a drop in prices, in the 3rd q around 23% indicated a drop in prices. So maybe this is a good thing cp. to q2! - Supply conditions - those postulating improvements were about 10% in q1, 18% in q2 and only 5% in q3. Those postulating worsening supply conditions were 32% in q1, 75% in q2, and 65% in q3. Again the clear trend is that conditions are worsening on the supply side which is a good thing if one is invested in these stocks There is also a good correlation between what Corrigan has said and the overall industry comments: quarter what corrigan said what the overall industry said 1 things picking up jan - favorable outlook in q1 feb - cond. improving but concerns linger mar - steady as she goes 2 things looking good apr - steady but uncertain but dropping off may - watch the memory market <g> as quarter ended jun - pessimism prevails 3 earnings warning - jul - conditions remain sluggish broad based weakness aug - exp. head further south in July and August sep - improvements ahead Since Sep is showing improvements ahead, I will go on record and say LSI will show an upside surprise in revenues for Q4 <ggg> (I pay no attention to the earnings at this stage.) I really don't follow XLNX closely so I'll have to punt here! Shane