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Non-Tech : Shorting the Big Banks (e.g. JPM, BT, CMB, CCI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mohan Marette who wrote (92)	9/11/1998 10:48:00 AM
From: BDR	Respond to of 268

emgmkts.com LatAM review dailynews.yahoo.com Japan Economy Shrinks Again, Markets Shudder Gross domestic product (GDP) -- output of goods and services minus net income from overseas -- fell a real 0.8 percent in April-June from the previous quarter. On an annualized basis it was down 3.3 percent. It is the first time Japan's economy has shrunk for three quarters in a row since the government began collecting data by the present method in 1955. dailynews.yahoo.com Dollar Tumbles Amid Fears U.S. Growth Could Slow By Svea Herbst-Bayliss NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar tumbled against major currencies Thursday as investors feared the vibrant U.S. economy may stall as a global economic crisis engulfs Latin America and President Clinton's fate looked bleak. As markets in Mexico, Brazil, Argentina and Chile crumbled, the dollar dropped nearly four pfennigs against the German mark and nearly 2-1/2 Japanese yen on worries that slower growth in Latin America will cloud U.S. growth by denting corporate profits. ''The general belief that problems in Latin America will have negative repercussions for the U.S. economy hurt the dollar,'' John McCarthy, senior vice president at ING Barings Capital said, adding the market was particularly worried about a possible bailout for Latin America.

To: Mohan Marette who wrote (92)	9/13/1998 3:05:00 AM
From: B Tate	Respond to of 268

Mohan OT ****** Understanding that I'm not a political analyst, I see the beginning of the end here in Malaysia starting within the next 30 days. The Commonwealth Games are currently underway here and everything has been "on hold" until they are over. For obvious reasons the gov't doesn't want the foreign press here to get much of a sense of what is going on. Anwar's non-arrest, is a perfect example. I'm hearing that it is expected the ringgit will trade at over 6 to 1 on the black market soon. (it was at 4.20 when the Mad Hatter imposed an artificial rate of 3.8 last week) Thailand is at or very close to the bottom from my perspective. I have been there 6 or 8 times in the last 6 months and the changes are obvious and dramatic. They really bit the bullet hard and fast IAW the IMF "suggestions". The political resolve being shown both internally and with the IMF is remarkable for the Asian region. Indo is a mess and may take years just to stabilize. The social instability is much more of a problem now than monetary policy. To answer your question on 6-8 months?..... I would say no. With that said I do think we will have a much better idea of the future by the end of Q1 '99. My suspicion is that selectively you will begin to see areas of recovery. Most likely Thailand will be the lead indicator and the rest will be judged in respect to their success and methods. The fly-in -the-ointment could be China, but having visited there recently for 10 days, I believe they will maintain the course as they said they would. All bets are off if Japan continues to act like an ostrich. regards bernie