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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (655)	9/11/1998 11:40:00 AM
From: Paul Berliner	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3536

Robert, I personally find it puzzling that the dollar has now fallen sharply vs. the DM. The yen I can understand, due to events I've mentioned earlier, such as the domino effect on traders' stops after big hedge funds covered a few weeks ago to satisfy mega-margin calls from losses in Russia. I then lobbied that as stop after stop was triggered, a dollar/yen selling panic emerged, and here we are at 130. It's spooky how the dollar rallied 4 yen after the BoJ rate cut, but has since given back the entire gain and more. Regarding the DM though, I would assume that the negative opinions on German Banks that have developed from russia's wake would weaken the DM equally as much as the dollar, but this has not been the case. I can't see why the DM has held up through this whole mess while the dollar hasn't. German Banks have just as much to lose as US ones, and I can't give Clinton's situation the weight of 13 DM's. No way.

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (655)	9/11/1998 12:07:00 PM
From: Lee	Respond to of 3536

Robert, Thread, Some interesting news today... Producer prices fall and it lifts stock, but Japan contracts and claims to be on the verge of a deflationary spiral ( about which we all seem to be concerned and a claim which one could argue is supported by the PPI fall). Of note, car prices are down in the US, along with energy and food. Competition from exports does seem to be having its effect. It seems the effects I have been expecting are just lagged a quarter or two. Steel workers are worried about imports with are way up. P&G is effected more than they planned by the global economic struggles. It seems one can expect job losses in some industries at an accelerated pace. The trillion dollar questions is can growth elsewhere in the economy stave off recession? Does a falling dollar continue ala Mr. Douglas and does this help corporate profits? Well, panic has yet to hit the venture capitalists. Producer Prices Fall: dailynews.yahoo.com Japan Shrinks Again: dailynews.yahoo.com A Quote "Economists said lower consumption, which accounts for about 60 percent of GDP, as well as battered capital spending and domestic demand on the back of a deterioration in consumer and business sentiment were behind the economic contraction." That would do it. Another Quote "In the foreign exchange market, the dollar briefly dived more than six yen to around 128 yen in afternoon Tokyo as concerns about U.S. foreign exchange policy, the political fate of President Bill Clinton and jittery markets prompted players to unload the greenback, dealers said. 128, WOW. US Steel workers worried about "dumping": dailynews.yahoo.com A Quote "Imports from Japan were up 113.7 percent during the first half of the year compared with the same period last year. Imports from South Korea were 89.5 percent higher and from Russia were 50.6 percent higher, the group said. " P&G Warns dailynews.yahoo.com Silicon Venture Firms Restrained but Undaunted: dailynews.yahoo.com A quote: "''We've been saying for three years that life has been way too easy for all of us,'' Moritz said. ''But we don't get carried away when euphoria is the fashion and we're not going to panic now.''" Regards, Lee