To: Zoltan! who wrote (4836 ) 9/11/1998 3:33:00 PM From: Doughboy Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13994
If Congress finds Slick committed impeachable offenses then the Constitution requires ("shall") that the Senate vote to remove him. Oh come now, Zoltan. The odds are still long that the Senate would impeach the President. They need two thirds to impeach, and I don't think they can count those votes yet. I think Clinton can expect to lose Hollings' vote (by loss of his election or otherwise), and some other blue-dogs--but the loyalists are deep and powerful: Daschle, Breaux, Leahy, Biden. The liberal bloc is still strong, and makes up maybe half the Democratic delegation. So the key is the moderates, and if Lieberman and Feinstein are any indication, they will hold the line against impeachment. And in the House, I think the same calculus holds, especially in the Judiciary Committee. Although the GOP could ram thru the articles, it is unlikely that a man like Hyde would want to send articles of impeachment to the Senate with a vote split down partisan lines. It would be an embarrassment for our nation. A good model for the handling of this proceeding is way in which the Supreme Court handed down every single school desegregation decision. On all of them, the Court achieved 9-0 unanimity, not because everyone believed in the decisions (in fact, Hugo Black was an avowed segregationist), but because the Court members realized that this was of no small moment to our Republic, and a united front was called for to uphold the Constitution. Congress also has to realize that it would be an embarrassment to that body and to the body politic, if this turned into a partisan battle. This is an all-or-nothing end-game. I hope the GOP has the good sense to give up when it realizes that it cannot sway Dems or the public to their side. We'll see. My guess is that Hyde will negotiate a compromise where one or maybe two articles of impeachment (perjury and abuse of power) are voted out with the support of maybe 1/3 of the Dems on the Committee. When it gets to the Senate, the Dems will rally to the idea of a censure of the President, and bipartisan agreement will break down. Lott and Nickles will see that they cannot get the 2/3rds, and on some kind of procedural vote (e.g., to table a resolution to censure the President), it will be decided not to seek a vote on impeachment. The President will be censured by a unanimous Senate, followed by a similar unanimous resolution in the House, and this will be all over. Doughboy.