To: Berney who wrote (3898 ) 9/13/1998 3:55:00 AM From: MonsieurGonzo Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 11051
Berney; RE:" Melts In Your Mouth - Not In Your Hand " ...the cover of my copy The Economist this week is a friggin' melting globe (^_^) Some paragraphs that tend to summarize the lead article : _The IMF is currently under fire from economists for its handling of the crises in Asia and Russia. They argue that its remedies - tight macro-economic policies and far-reaching restructuring - have made things worse not better. Extreme critics think that the Fund should be abolished; Meanwhile, America's Congress is blocking an urgent increase in its funds. (political difficulty funding Russia with 30.000 nukes) _The IMF's solutions may indeed have been wanting. In hindsight, its policies in Asia were too contractionary - and are now being eased - and its requirements for structural reforms may have demanded too much in an environment of panic . But the way to resolve these mistakes is to improve the IMF; it is not, as the critics advocate, to withhold much-needed funds. (besides, we have no other mechanism to do something) _If the emerging-market crisis deepens and the IMF runs out of money; if Japan continues to delay its plans to rescue its sick banking system; if Wall Street crashes again, but the Fed refuses to cut interest rates; if the European Central Bank pushes up interest rates purely to establish its anti-inflationary credentials; if all of the above - then things would indeed look bad for the world economy. But one hopes that not all policy-makers could be that incompetent. (given, of course - that we actually had leaders to begin with) _One huge policy error in the 1930's was a retreat towards protectionism. (the Smoot-Hawley tariff) _A related and more worrying backlash against free markets is the increasing interest on the part of governments in 'market intervention' or 'kapital controls' as a solution to the crisis. (neo-fascism) ...and the closing paragraph... _Indeed the biggest risk now to the world economy may lie not so much in a deep depression, which could be averted. It is that there may be a wholesale retreat from free markets. (neo-fascism -vs- neo-capitalism) _ ...and elsewhere, an interesting analysis attempts to predict a result of the negative wealth effect (stock market equity values going down, essentially reducing American's "savings") on the rate of consumer spending , which is so important right now - given that there ain't no spending on kapital goods, folks ! Says here, a 40% drop in stock prices (from 17-JULY high) would reduce consumer spending by 4% to 5% for two years.uhhhhh-- did they say a 40 % drop in stock prices ? -Steve