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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (24159)	9/11/1998 5:12:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Just some things to ponder. Perhaps we can all agree that the business bottom is within 18 months, and try to narrow it from there. And perhaps we can also agree that the stocks will tend to react 3 months or more before the business bottom. Then, we might even agree that the turn will be sudden and unexpected. Yet, it still makes sense to me that it requires an Asian recovery or stability. Then buying of semi's picks up very quickly, and equipment within just a couple months. Because of the long down period, by then, the buying is sustained. Huge daily percentage leaps in stock prices. Does everyone see that Korea is doing better the last few months? When Japan comes out of their recession, lending stability to the weaker tigers, how long before a pick up in semi demand?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (24159)	9/11/1998 9:55:00 PM
From: akidron	Respond to of 70976

Richard, last time I bought at $26 & 27 (13 & 13.5 at todays post split prices) and sold at $100 on a stop-loss when I first got worried about asia (august last year) and I couldn't face loosing my profits on a carribian holiday. On the way up I also compounded my profits buying calls. On the way down I played a couple of minor rally's and broke a little better than even on putts. I have never made $$$$$ like I made on AMAT's run up, so I am extremely concsious of not missing the boat. BUT I am a strange beast. I make micro decisions based on a macro view. That view tells me that there is a chance that we will slip into reccesion, and a smaller one that a depression is coming. It is not yet inevitable, but the likelyhood is strong enough that it does color my view of what is a cheap stock, because in a melt-down little is left standing. I'm nibbling at the drillers because I think they're cheap and a decent play on global instability... in other words a hedge. Playing pfizer, because I thought $95 was a good price, as sex is cheap entertainment, even at $10 buxxx a pop, and because the insitutions have been flocking to it, bought mtsn because it's either going bust or it'll be sold, and I'll take my chances, and I bought MOFN because I sold it north of here and one-day someone will realize it's a internet stock.... but why buy AMAT when it lacks the one thing a stock absolutely needs in a no growth enviroment .... growth. FYI i've got "Sometimes it hurts" by aretha on repeat... soooooo gooood