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To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (65146)9/11/1998 5:42:00 PM
From: The Phoenix  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
 
Darrell,

Lots of nice work there. Where did you get your market growth rates from? I think PC growth rates are projected to be <20%. But then by saying that I have to go get the data. So, rather than do that, perhaps you could post your sources first.

OG



To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (65146)9/11/1998 5:47:00 PM
From: LWolf  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
 
Darrell >>in four years Dell could actually be doing $65 to $75 billion<<

I believe that Kemble told me (in an PM) that Dell was projected to be $60 billion in 2001. I can't remember where he got the number, but I believe it was from within Dell. The folks at Dell have learned to be conservative in their public statements.

So, what I'm getting at, is that Dell may be looking to achieve these targets prior to your estimates. <VBG>



Laura



To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (65146)9/11/1998 7:05:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
 
Darrell, these were my assumptions: an industry-wide growth rate of 15% which includes all segments -- servers, desktops, laptops, etc. A Dell growth rate of 45% (3x industry average), and a current market share of 8%.

Are you saying that the enterprise and laptop growth rates are separate and apart from the total industry growth rate, or are you suggesting that the estimated growth for the entire sector is greater than 15%? My conclusion rests entirely in the assumptions, so if I've made a faulty assumption please let me know.

TTFN,
CTC



To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (65146)9/12/1998 1:04:00 PM
From: rudedog  Respond to of 176387
 
Darrel -
One comment on your argument - respected analysts such as Giga predict that the current 'high end' market (Mainframes etc) will fall to the current trend of enterprise capable machines over the next 10 years. That is a $200 billion market. Dell, with their current model and direction, would surely participate in at least some of that market, and by adding enterprise-class service they could get a lot more.