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Strategies & Market Trends : Bill Wexler's Profits of DOOM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (2657)	9/11/1998 10:05:00 PM
From: AHM	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 4634

I commend you for finally and at long last documenting why you hold your opinion regarding fraudulent promotion of Tava. First off, I do not believe Tava's report is overdue at all. It is their fiscal year-end report and they are bound by SEC rules as to the last date when it can be released without applying to the SEC for an extension. I believe that any time this month is OK (correct me if I'm wrong about the deadline). As it turns out, Tava's 1st quarter for its new fiscal year will be due approximately 30 days following the release of its annual report. I know nothing about Stan Corker or Emerald Research. However, the following article from the Wall Street Journal On Line quotes a reputable analyst from an old and highly reputable regional firm in Denver who draws the same conclusions. I spoke with Russell Welty (the Hanifen Imhoff analyst quoted by Dow Jones) about 1 1/2 weeks ago after discussing Tava with an officer of Hanifen Imhoff. In that conversation Welty said he had been following the company for some time and was totally comfortable with $0.04/share for the quarter. Perhaps Stan Corker is not publishing original research, but paraphrasing Hanifen Imhoff's analyst's work. I have a close relationship with this firm through a good friend who is one of its officers. He has the highest regard for his research group, Russell Welty in particular. The article can be easily found on The Wall Street Journal On Line for anybody who is a subscriber. The URL for this story is: interactive.wsj.com. Tava Technologies Inc. Dow Jones Newswires -- August 18, 1998 Tava Rises 27.5% After Publicity; Market Rebound Helps By Tom Locke DENVER (Dow Jones)--Tava Technologies Inc. (TAVA) shares closed up 27.5% Tuesday, the second straight day of gains after a price boost of 8.5% Monday. Tava spokesman Scott Liolios attributed the rise to a combination of factors: an Aug. 13 reiteration of a "buy" recommendation by Hanifen, Imhoff analyst Russell Welty in Denver; an Aug. 16 interview with Tava Chief Executive John Jenkins in the Venture Returns newsletter; and a rebound by the stock market and by companies tied to solving year 2000 computer problems. In his update, Welty said he was very comfortable with his fourth-quarter estimate of $15 million in revenue and four cents in earnings per share. In the Venture Returns interview, Jenkins emphasized that the prospects for the company are "better than ever." The Y2K Index, an index of companies that provide year 200 solutions, rose from 204 on Friday to 215 Tuesday, Liolios said. Tava Chief Financial Officer Doug Kelsall agreed that the Hanifen and Venture Returns publicity both contributed to the upswing, and he speculated that buyers jumped on the bandwagon once the stock started to move upward. "I think there was just some rebound buying," he said, noting there is no new news from the company. Tava stock has been clobbered over the last several months along with others associated with Y2K. Tava shares fell from a high of nearly 15 a share in April to a close of below 5 a share on Aug. 13. Tava, of Englewood, Colo., sells and integrates hardware and software manufacturing systems, and Liolios said it has unfairly been lumped with Y2K companies because it has a broader base than its Y2K business. Even so, Y2K is important to Tava. In its fiscal fourth quarter ending June 30, it received $25 million in orders for year 2000 tools and services. Tava has been a leader in warning manufacturers of potential year 2000 problems in their manufacturing processes, including potential problems in programmable logic chips in flow meters and other devices. Tava introduced a Y2K product called Plant Y2K One in July 1997. The year 2000 problem has been a good vehicle for introducing new clients to its core business. Ken Trbovich, associate director of research for The Red Chip Review in Portland, Ore., agreed that Tava is more than its year 2000 product. However, the company has "not consistently delivered," sometimes falling below earnings or revenue estimates, he said. In a June 16 report, for instance, Trbovich said Tava's third quarter ending March 31 fell short of his revenue estimate. Tava had third-quarter revenue of $11.7 million, compared with $11.2 million for the year-ago quarter. Earnings were $301,000, or 1 cent per diluted share. Tava shares closed Tuesday at 7 3/32, up 1 17/32, or 27.5%, on volume of 1,537,100 compared with average daily volume of 523,901. -By Tom Locke; 303-293-9294 PS - I have played Tava for several round-trips both long and short over the past few weeks - it has been profitable on each turn. The one negative I can post is that Hanifen Imhoff's trading desk gives it no support notwithstanding their analyst's recommendation. HNF is always far away from the market with a 1-point spread between its bid and ask prices. I have brought this to the attention of my friend who has no statement on this issue other than to say that the trading operation of the firm makes independent decisions as to the allocation of capital in the making of markets and that the firm's research department has no influence on trading decisions.

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (2657)	9/12/1998 11:01:00 PM
From: 1-DAY-TRADER	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4634

Bill & Dr. S Ref: TCOMA I see that TCOMA is on your list of short picks, Have you looked at it lately? It looks like a good short at this level. Can you please post your latest info regarding it? why is it still up? Is it a buy-out candidate or something? In your opinion, is it ready to open a short position in it? or should I wait a while? Also, Look at CABL, COX, EMMS . They look very hot too, what do you think? Thanx in advance :)