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Technology Stocks : Loral Space & Communications -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Timothy R. Tierney who wrote (4550)	9/11/1998 10:11:00 PM
From: dougjn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10852

Here is how: Analysts get their reports out and say they don't buy the only 3-4 months delay, no effect on year 2000 scenario Mr. S painted for G. Year 2000 down 25-50% from projections. Sales take a while to ramp. Demonstration effects necessary. Year 2001 said by analysts to be 25-10% less than projections, "if no further major problems." Some raise issue as to whether G will even be able to finance the new $400 mil launch and stretch out money needed. Risk premium perceived to have gone way up and needs to stay there until at least half the birds are airborne. I* has continuing problems causing people to loose faith in the revenue possibilities of the sector. Issues raised as to how bad the equity dilution of G*, and Lor's interest in it will be to cover the financing needs. Faith in management errodes a bit as some launch delays from the optimistic schedule announced by Mr. S develop, due to overall tight rocket capabilities. And doubts about Zenit and Long March reliability. No strong tangible developments for a while. Cultish net following looses lots of adherants. Doubts rise and certainty recedes. Market takes another dive, and all "on the come" stocks without earnings take even worse hits than the last couple of times. That's how. Probably not all the above. Probably some of it. Long term big bull. Near and intermediate term out of here. Big damage takes a while to repair. Nearly always. Doug