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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (24176)	9/11/1998 10:08:00 PM
From: akidron	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

funny how two people can take the same facts and look at them so differently. I'd ask you to consider this. Amat is down 55% from it's 97 highs, others are down more, yet AMAT comitted the most rescources, both absolute and relative, to the idea that we were on the verge of the great new era. In other words AMAT has the most to lose not the least to lose from the current slow down/collapse. Of course it is true that AMAT is taking share from it's competitors, it has to, it has had to amortize it's inflated fixed costs by selling at any price, but now many of its customers cannot buy at any price.... AND IT HAS THE MOST TO LOSE. So its cutting costs, but not fast enough, and one day the market will catch on to all the waste, and on that day, it will be time to buy. "Sometimes it hurts to love so bad.... sometimes the pain is just to much to bear."

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (24176)	9/11/1998 10:20:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

BK, RE: Do you expect the entire group to fall when AMAT does? If AMAT is to fall to the levels talked about here, we should be seeing the entire group fall in sympathy. Do you feel this is realistic when many are down 84%+? In short, what exactly is not priced into these shares and could potentially be the "second shoe"? Historical precedence! Recall that AMAT has 2x the number of shares that it had in '96 when it was at around $22 as a bottom. I think that if you look back it had roughly the same total sales then, as last quarter, and going forward sales look weaker. AMAT is a very large company compared to its competition (same argument that I've used for INTC for 18 months) and has much larger operating/business expenses to maintain a world wide presence/support base. If the sales/profits aren't there, neither are the investors who can find better short/mid term returns elsewhere until things look to be improving. Most of the competition have reached close to their bottoms while AMAT is being supported by the big institutional investors hoping for a sign on the horizon that things are improving. They will have a long wait, IMO, and I don't think they will continue to hold thru the end of the year, especially if things look to be getting worse, it doesn't look good on the books or help the end of year bonus for the fund managers. I'm curious, has anyone seen AMAT insiders making large buys at these prices, why not??? (I bet that sent a cold shiver of reality up your spine.) AMAT commented in the last quarterly report that they didn't buy back any shares in Q3, why not?? There are too many shoes waiting to drop that make me think it might be better to wait, no telling which direction they may come from. Some examples, Brazil defaulting, Korea defaulting, Russia defaulting, Japan market crash/depression, B2B going to .55, US corporate earnings decreasing, AMAT bad Q4/end of year report, Dow at 6200, Naz at 1000, there are numerous others. I'll wait, thankyou. BB

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (24176)	9/11/1998 10:28:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Brian, If you check a little longer term chart techstocks.com one could conclude that AMAT has been treated much better than the other companies you selected during the past year. Yet the same tide that has affected those companies is also affecting AMAT. If one looks at the Network Equipment sector, CSCO continued to grow substantially while other equipment companies struggled or failed. AMAT has done better than others, but its stock price performance has been better still. If Latin America fails, the likelihood of a more severe, long lasting recession increases. I don't believe that has been priced into AMAT while it has been priced into many other Semi Equipment Companies some of which are selling for close to net Cash. FWIW, Ian.