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Non-Tech : Iomega Thread without Iomega -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (1526)	9/12/1998 3:12:00 AM
From: Reseller	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10072

Hi GM, Haven't had any returns with failed drives.(EOM)

To: Gottfried who wrote (1526)	9/12/1998 7:00:00 AM
From: David Colvin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10072

Gottfried, From the Motley Fool IOM board on AOL. Thought you might find it interesting/thought provoking. Dave **************************************************************** Subject: Re: Sony HiFD << I believe that if Sony thinks that people will pay an extra $10 for a drive that has more capacity, they are dead wrong and the HiFD will be seen as a niche product. >> I don't think that cost is even an issue. The selling point of HiFD will be its utility. Either there will be a compelling need for the product at the time it comes to market, or else it won't ever be more than a footnote in the history of its niche. Period. Three years ago, the perception of Zip's utility over standard floppies was its increase in storage capacity on the order of 7000%. In 1995 there was such pent-up demand for a product like Zip that consumers were willing to fork over $200 for the drives. Price -- within reason -- was no impediment. Whereas, today ... the advantage of the new contender HiFD over the entrenched Zip will be an increase in capacity of only 100%. IMO, this amounts to an inconsequential increment above the status quo, nowhere near the order of magnitude required to create a market paradigm shift and move the average consumer into adopting a new standard. Based on reports posted here, we can reasonably anticipate that Sony's backward-compatibility feature will prove to be unreliable. Unless the final production model solves these problems, consumers will figure out in short order that the compatibility selling point is a fraud. Sony could beat Iomega's OEM drive price by ten bucks, and it would still be a fraud. And, in any case, the axiom "timing is everything" could not be truer here. HiFD would have had a decent shot at standard-bearing if it had beaten Zip to market -- or at least followed in rapid succession -- in 1995. But as Sony hustles this product to market three years after the other horses left the starting gate -- without even announcing a single OEM other than its own invisible Vaio line -- one must wonder if HiFD will make so much as a blip on consumers' radar screens now. The resistance Sony will have to price is considerable. In the absence of OEMs, nearly all HiFD drives sold initially will be external. Consequently, backward-compatibility becomes a non-issue, since every single computer sold today is already, functionally "backward-compatible" with standard floppies. How do you convince someone who already has an internal floppy drive that they need a second, external floppy drive that can also read standard floppies? Higher capacity and better performance using HiFD disks, yes. But Zip already offers higher capacity and better performance, and Zip has already achieved vast market penetration. I can count on sharing a Zip disk with just about anyone who is already hip enough to have bought a high-density drive by now. What are the odds that I'll be able to share files with my service bureau ... or my school ... or my professional associates ... on a HiFD disk anytime in the first year of the product's existence? Or the second year ... or the third? HiFD has a higher capacity than Zip? So what? There's no hue and cry from the masses, lamenting that their applications have outgrown Zip's 100mb storage capacity. Cheaper than Zip? Sorry, but it just ain't so. Cheaper per MB than Zip? Splitting hairs. It's a difference that makes no difference. Sony's unstoppable marketing machine? Give me a break MiniDisk fans. In contrast, SparQ was positioned as a real threat to Zip's hegemoney, but that competitor proved to be its own worst enemy...and Syquest's product line is well on its way to becoming a footnote now. The only way Sony can seriously hope to capture significant market share at Zip's expense in to take a page from Syquest and sell drives below cost. Way below cost. Low enough that anyone can do some simple math and conclude HiFD represents a compellingly better buy than Zip, regardless of its disadvantages Which, if they wanted to, Sony could do. If it were important enough to Sony's business model that they had to set a new standard at any cost, they could -- unlike Syquest -- carry the loss for the entire life cycle of the product. They could instantly line up a dozen OEMS by announcing they would sell internal HiFD drives at the same price as the old standard floppy drives. But so far, there's no sign that Sony will do this. And in the meantime, I just don't see the threat to Zip here. Now, had Sony been able to announce an HiFD Mavica digital camera for sale this Xmas -- a move THAT bold could have both ended the Iomega's Clik! gamble then and there, and created a genuine need for HiFD drives in the graphics industry. When Sony actually demonstrates an ability to create THAT kind of synergy, I'll start worrying.