To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (18555 ) 9/12/1998 8:44:00 AM From: goldsnow Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116786
Bobby are we missing something..What is there to save Brazil (read USA dollar) Are'nt defenders of "new paradigm" in urgent need for a shrink session? Debt-hit Brazil begs G7 for lifeline By Philip Delves Broughton, in Brasil <Picture>City: Fears rise over growing debt crisis BRAZIL raised its main interest rates by over 20 points to 49.75 per cent yesterday after spending another $1.9 billion of its foreign reserves and pleading with the leaders of the G7 for help to protect its currency, the real. The economy is now in danger of grinding to a halt as unemployment rises, wages stagnate and the currency, so carefully protected over the past four years, heads towards a forced devaluation. The crisis could not have come at a worse time for the government, which faces elections on Oct 4. The Congress is not sitting for the duration of the election campaign. President Fernando Enrique Cardoso, who was coasting towards a second term on a record of good financial stewardship, may see his achievements washed away, and with them his re-election hopes. His main opponent, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, of the Workers Party (PT), has found renewed energy in the economic meltdown, peddling a reactionary economic nationalism. He advocates rigid exchange controls, the blocking of non-essential imports and the repatriation of profits made by foreign companies. The demagogic "Lula", as he is known, has come within single digit range of Mr Cardoso in opinion polls, and while it is still highly unlikely that Mr Cardoso could lose the election, he could be pushed into an embarrassing run-off. Most outside observers agree that it would be a disaster for Brazil if he were obliged to deal with a more economically reactionary Congress. The fiscal deficit now stands at seven per cent of GDP, and the debt to foreign banks and governments requires maintenance and interest payments of up to $75 billion. The only means of tackling the debt is the implementation of a more effective tax system, the possible imposition of VAT and a serious pruning of the lavish pension system. In a country of 160 million people only five million pay fixed income taxes. Mr Cardoso has succeeded in implementing the biggest privatisation programme in the world. His education and health reforms have been effective in bringing poor children out of work and into schools and providing basic levels of health care. He has failed, however, to persuade Congress to implement the necessary fiscal reforms. Mr Cardoso and his economic team are aware that raising interest rates is a short term and probably ineffective response. But with his foreign reserves disappearing at more than a $1 billion a day and still three weeks to the election, he is in a race against time. 11 September 1998: Brazil teetering on the edge of financial chaostelegraph.co.uk