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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gbh who wrote (2964)	9/12/1998 5:45:00 PM
From: Chris Helton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

Most analysts on the Street are agreed that at an .8/1 share exchange, Ciena is dilutive to TLABs to the tune of about $.15/sh in 1999. Estimates for TLABs without CIENA for 1999, range from $2.20 to $2.40/sh. If we assume Ciena dilutes TLABs by $.20-.25/sh, TLABs at its current $44/sh would be selling at 22X 1999 eps of $1.95-2.15/sh The overall stock market currently sells for around 20X 1999 eps For TLABs to fall to the price you suggest would imply that TLABs would sell for substantially less than the average stock market company despite the fact that Tellabs grows substantially faster than average and could well accelerate growth in the future with CIENA on board. Few people doubt that WDM is going to grow in excess of 30%/yr for the next few years. CIENA will get a share of this. Your analysis of CIENA's and Tellabs future share price is hard to understand.