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To: Alan Hume who wrote (1496)9/12/1998 6:11:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed  Respond to of 3069
 
Alan, I read somewhere, but I cannot remember where, that if the low commodities prices continue for yet another season, 40% of the farmers would be on the ropes. Does that sound right to you?

Zeev



To: Alan Hume who wrote (1496)9/12/1998 10:08:00 PM
From: Carl R.  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3069
 
Surely you are not serious, Alan. With ag prices falling 35% no amount of efficiency can make farming profitable. Part of the problem is probably that foreign economies can not afford to buy ag products, diminishing demand. Part of the problem is the strong dollar which makes foreign production cheaper than domestic production despite efficiencies. And part of the problem is increased yields. In Nebraska corn yields will be at record levels this year due both to enhanced seed and perfect weather, but the farmers will suffer anyway.

I would concede that the inefficient farmers will fail first, along with debt laden farmers. But the point really isn't to discuss the solutions to the ag problems. Rather my point was that I expect the ag problems to cause a local economic slowdown in agricultural regions of the country. The farmers won't be buying tractors or cars or TVs or new suits this year. And that move up the food chain, at least in these parts. Farm problems alone won't push us into a recession, but it won't help, either.

Carl