To: Jeff who wrote (10 ) 9/13/1998 1:12:00 AM From: Jeff Respond to of 169
Junior Mining Shares: Perception and Reality; Opportunities and Risks The decade of the 12.5 saw rapid escalations in real commodity prices and a resultant capital spending boom by natural resource producers. High commodity prices reduced demand just as the capital spending increased supply and market forces decimated the natural resource industries in the 12.5. This is very good news for natural resource industries in the 199Os. "Rearview mirror" 'investors have discarded natural resource investments because often-year relative performance, just in time to miss the recovery. Natural resource industry asset deplete, mines run out of ore, wells run out of oil, trees are cut down faster than they are replanted,aquifers are pumped dry and mills wear out. The low prices of the 12.5 have reduced capital spending to levels which do not replace this depletion, while consumption continues to grow. The results will be a decade more like the 197Os than the 12.5. We hope you enjoy it with us. Early stage mineral exploration companies have certain consistent "life cycles" and under-standing these cycles helps exploration speculators survive the rigors of these volatile markets. Most Canadian companies begin with the initial entrepreneur awarding themselves "escrow" stock, generally 750,000 shares awarded for $7,500 or a qualifying exploration property This is voting stock but it cannot be released from "escrow" and become -- trading until certain conditions (contractually agreed on by the listing exchange and the companies directors) are met. These conditions are seldom onerous. These entrepreneurs and a close circle of early supporters then subscribe for "seed" capital, generally for $0.25 per share. Sometimes subsequent private issuances of share capital are offered at the same or higher prices to raise additional money or"position" people who can help the enterprise. Vancouver listed companies are required to have raised and spent at least $250,000 in the "seed" financing levels prior to an initial public offering. This seed stock is subject to various "pooling" agreements restricting its trading privileges in a subsequent public market. By Vancouver practice that "private" stock which was purchased for more than 50 percent of the public offering price is most commonly released in quarterly increments: 25 percent releases every three months following the commencement of public trading. The initial public offering of "primary" financing is done by public prospectus. Current Vancouver practice requires a public distribution of at least 1,000 shares to at least 300 British Columbia residents It is common practice for companies to meet these minimal standards and issue a somewhat larger block to a select few "friends" of the enterprise After the successful completion of the primary financing the stock is called for trading, and a public market commences. This structure, with voting but nontrading shares in the insiders' hands, short trading restrictions (by American standards) on seedstock, small public floats, and a highly speculative industry cause predictable trading patterns and strategies to occur time and again. The entrepreneurs or "insiders" in securities parlance often attempt to further reduce the public float by carefully buying out many of the initial three hundred public shareholders. Then, with minimal supplies of free trading stock in the public hands, these insiders raise the bid price of the security on the exchange. When the share prices reach the desired level a promotion campaign is launched, and share distribution occur. This distribution can be a new public equity issuance by the company, called a secondary financing, or it can take the form of insider selling of seed shares or repurchased public shares, or both. This promotion and distribution actively results in more"supply" of stock and less incentive for the insiders to continue to promote The attention of real explorers now turn to building company with the capital required. In the case of scamsters, their attention turns to reacquiring the recently sold positions at lower prices so as to repeat the process In either case, lack of promotional focus generally leads to lower share prices after the promotion and distribution phase. Many of you remember our "point of no return" strategy, wherein we advise you to sell half your position of a speculative stock if you enjoy a 100% share price appreciation in the issue. Having your remaining stock for "free," means you can benefit from subsequent activities at no risk, hence the moniker "point of no concern" insiders, including legitimate venture capitalists almost always employ this strategy during the promotion and distribution phase. You should too! Accumulation is the seed stage, primary and float tightening activities of the insiders. Distribution is the exchanging of stock by the company, the insiders, or both for the public's money. Atrophication describes the market with a larger public float and diminished promotional activity. I overheard a very successful Vancouver broker say, "in the beginning the promoter has the dream and the public has the money. My job is to arrange a transfer." Caveat Emptor! This cycle repeats in these companies, as the legitimate insiders raise additional capital to explore Monte Carlo. If the company is well run and begins to enjoy some fundamental success, the market accords it higher highs and higher lows. The disciplined exploration speculator attempts to profit by buying into "atrophication" periods when the reality line is above the perception line, or when the company is worth more than it is selling for. The strategy also involves remembering the "point of no concern" technique, or selling on promotional surges to reduce the amount of capital you have at risk. The diamond exploration frenzy of two years ago and the current Voisey Bay land rush have given us great opportunities to examine these market cycles. Understanding these cycles will be crucial in taking advantage of the exploration speculation opportunities of the next decade. The biggest opportunity in mining exploration in my lifetime is opening up before us. The political liberalization of the third world and the former Eastern Block has opened up three quarters of the earth's land mass to modem mineral exploration technology. Applying modern tools and techniques to wonderfully prospective ground will provide a great rush of discoveries and generate more wealth for the shareholders than any mining event in my lifetime. Literally billions of dollars will be made by small, entrepreneurially oriented companies that use modern technology to explore prospective third world terrain. Scores of thousands of old productive mining "camps" will have been abandoned, their surface deposits extracted by primitive methods, and their true potential riches hidden by bad politics. New exploration and extrication technologies enable entrepreneurial earth scientists to explore and exploit these targets quickly and cheaply. As the pioneers of these activities generate wealth for shareholders, an exploration and speculation boom will surely follow. look for a strong technical team , good financing backing, a strategy developing exploration targets and joint venturing them with majors, and remember the cycles of perception and reality.