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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Follies who wrote (27675)	9/13/1998 12:59:00 AM
From: flickerful	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

dale......welcome back! <eom>

To: Follies who wrote (27675)	9/13/1998 7:25:00 AM
From: Philipp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Dale: This thread has certainly become bullish. In fact there seem to be quite a few long-term bulls as well. After Friday's action I understand it. The market was looking for an excuse to go up despite some pretty bad news in the world. That is a very bullish sign (typical at turn-arounds), very different from some of those manufactured rallies we had Thursday and the previous Friday. Before joining the bullish camp short-term, I will be looking at two main factors: Clinton and Japan (and one should probably not ignore Brazil). Clinton He is unlikely to resign, but impeachment proceedings are likely: intermediate-term negative for the market, but unlikely to cause big moves except possibly this week. This week's reaction could be either very positive or very negative depending on the public reaction and the politicians' responses. There is an interesting dichotomy. Polls polling the total population, radio shows are overwhelmingly against impeachment, while the MSNBC poll still has more than 70 % people saying that he has to go. Of course, the first group is dominated by people who don't keep themselves very informed and probably contains a larger fraction of non-voters than the second group of people, an important consideration for politicians. My impression at the moment is that this could be a big positive Monday/Tuesday Japan Japan had a real bombshell after the market closed. GDP fell by 3.3% (annual basis) and the Nikkei fell already below 14000 without anticipating such disaster. If that does not cause a 10%+ crash, I don't know what ever would. So if Japan does not crash and the Clinton sentiment is not too negative, I will go aggressively short-term long Monday morning (fortunately we will know before the market opens). It could be more than 5% this week. If Japan crashes, but Clinton sentiment remains positive: could be a roller coaster, no action from me. If Japan crashes, Clinton sentiment turns negative: BK Good trading, Phil

To: Follies who wrote (27675)	9/13/1998 8:14:00 AM
From: GROUND ZERO™	Respond to of 94695

dale, Great post!!! Just remember, change is constant and the only place you won't find change is in a vending machine. GZ

To: Follies who wrote (27675)	9/13/1998 8:20:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Dale, >>>>>>>>>> This thread has certainly changed in a week. I am astounded. bobby beara has turned bullish. Plonk's 3 of b of 2 of II of 7 of Monica's megaphone indicates new highs by the end of the month. William has been bullish since he got back. Ground Zero started the week pitifully praying for a little rally and ended the week claiming victory. Vitas covered his short in the great BK game. <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< Very interesting observation, which made me remember something. Lets go back to the extremely strong runup during JAN-APRIL - around the end of Mar I recall that many technical systems then were giving SELL signals on SI and with some of the analysts. I also recall clearly that PISANI on CNBC talking about how high the CALL to PUT ratio was and that many of the floor traders felt it could reverse. Well I bought PUTs at that time also. The market did pullback about 200 points to around 8750, then continued strongly back up to gain 500 more points. I have noticed over the last few days with both the media/analysts and SI posts that BUY SIGNALS have been triggered. In many of the individual technical indicators, I have also noticed these BUY SIGNALS, such as the STOCHASTICS, RSI, MACD, VIX etc Similar to what happened in MAR, but in reverse. Due to the the failure of my PUTs in MAR, during that strong uptrend, I installed some safety valves in my system with the hope that it would prevent a false signal, and right now it is not confirming the BUY SIGNALs of many of the individual technical indicators. In fact, it is now saying that we are smack in the middle and it can go either way for the short-term. It does hint of a possible short-term TRADING RANGE TREND of 7500-8100, which still needs further confirmation, but the overall bias is still to the downside. I am not saying that it is calling for the BIG KAHUNA either. Thanks for your observation, since it confirmed that the safety valve I put into my system is working - now it could be working too well and halt me from changing my position quick enough to the upside. As long as the DOW does not break 8100 substantially(about 100 points), then this safety valve is doing its job. Of course if the DOW breaks 8100 strongly, I may have to conclude that this safety valve may be too strong/rigid. Seeya