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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bernard Levy who wrote (13697)	9/13/1998 2:12:00 AM
From: craig crawford	Respond to of 18691

>> However, right now they are a really impressive company and lots of semi investors are sitting on the sidelines waiting to jump in if the price comes down significantly << Precisely. There is still a romance story to BRCM. Business is expanding rapidly right now, just as it was with CIEN last year and part of this year. It was just plain wrong to short CIEN last year, no matter what it is trading at today. >> Most BRCM boosters, including its CEO, tout it as the next Intel. Wrong! There is not obstacle to entry in BRCM markets, and over time they will be challenged on many fronts. << I disagree with you a bit on this point. While it is by no means a given that BRCM will ever become the next INTC, your argument doesn't preclude it from happening. Low barriers to entry and fierce competition hasn't stopped Michael Dell. If it's been done once it can be done again. It all rests on how savvy BRCM management is. Some managers have what it takes and some don't. The jury is still out.

To: Bernard Levy who wrote (13697)	9/13/1998 2:13:00 AM
From: 1-DAY-TRADER	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Bernard... ref: BRCM I am very impressed with your knowledgeable and educated post. I am more convinced that BRCM will one of my best shorts next to KTEL, AMZN,CYCH, CYSP & RMBS. RMBS also had a unique technology, but look where it is now :) KTEL still has 1.8 Millions shares floating too, where is it now :) BRCM will see new year low's too, soon, very soon. And, remember, most rewarding shorts take some times, if you can hold on. So, why miss it and kick myself to death later ???? Actually, my target is in the low 50's to 40's then cover and reshort at bounces. I am fully invested, so I have no worries about Margin calls. I only wish they bring up to mid 70's, before dumping the 40 million shares within few more weeks, so that I can short few more thousands. However, I think these PUMPING spikes on very low volume is an indication for the imminence of DUMPING. I Think the upside potential here is very limited in $value and timing. I do not want to miss it like the last time in August, so I initiated shorting at these levels. IMO, we are about to see the last of such a high valuation ( which COULD BE as early as this week) I am also short on CMGI, YBTVA, and looking to short some more broadcasting and biotech high flyers. I think we will get a rally on Monday as people will foolishly think that Clinton's problems are over. I will be there to take profits for them. :) I like your logic and DD, do you have any good short ideas, please post'em. Thanx again for the response