To: Fang Li who wrote (18014 ) 9/13/1998 11:03:00 AM From: Craig Stevenson Respond to of 29386
Fang Li, If we believe ALL the rumors, Brocade has certainly grabbed the lion's share of the OEM business. However, some of these companies have multiple divisions that will need Fibre Channel switches. (This was mentioned during the last conference call.) What I think this means is that the loss of IBM's storage division OEM (if true) doesn't necessarily mean that other IBM divisions will follow suit. Another point is that the SAN market will expand beyond the OEMs that are routinely mentioned here on SI. Even on the LAN side, we have seen this happen. Who would have thought of Boeing, IBM Global Services, Hucom, GeoQuest, etc. as Fibre Channel candidates? I think we will see the same type of thing happen on the SAN side. (Hopefully with better top and bottom line results. <g>) I think there are several possible scenarios that would explain why Ancor dropped their LAN side business. (Granted, they are still going to "cherry pick on the LAN side".) 1. Ancor saw that business on the LAN side was being severely hampered by the popularity of Gigabit Ethernet, and decided that it wasn't worth pursuing. (In essence, seeing greater opportunities on the SAN side, and deciding to devote all company resources there.) 2. Ancor saw that they were losing OEM customers to the competition on the SAN side, and figured that they better devote all company resources there. 3. Ancor signed an OEM, and required all company resources to support that OEM. I think scenario number 1 is the most likely, and fits most closely with what investors have been told. It also seems to fit best with what I perceive the market is doing. The reason I mention Cal is that someone on the Yahoo board spoke to him, and posted a synopsis of their conversation. He then asked George Dawson to post his comments on SI, and ask for responses from some of the regulars here. As far as who actually runs the show at Ancor, I am not sure how the responsibilities are divided between Ken and Cal. Cal probably has more control of day to day operations, but that is my own speculation. Craig