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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Lars who wrote (970)9/13/1998 11:43:00 AM
From: Sonki  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 15132
 
from Zacks: Despite today's strong gains, analysts nonetheless continue to lower
their earnings estimates for the 3rd quarter. Earnings growth estimates
for the S&P500 this year are at 6%, and 5.9% for 1999, compared with
10% last year, and are widely expected to drop further.

question to bob, if any one can get thru

with decling earning growth rate why should market be valued at 21 or 24 pe?

i.e.
if growth was expected to be 10% and we traded 21pe aprox 2 peg.
new growth rate now 5.9 or 6%, why would we not trade at 12-15pe of forward earning?

he will say lower rates would justify higher pe. Naturally lower earning means we are going to have to put up w. higher foward pe.

does his model take into account that financail sector is expecting
30% decline in earning next year. This secotr is 25% of sp500 index.

-long spy. (accumlating...not buying)