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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 1-DAY-TRADER who wrote (13702)	9/13/1998 5:39:00 AM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

>> 1) the price of CIEN DID drop TWICE last year from 60's to 40's. LOOK UP the WEEKLY CHART. << It ran to 60 AFTER the secondary was completed and AFTER the release of shares. For the second time, the release of shares from the lock-up had NO measurable affect on the price. It is not a justifiable reason for shorting a stock IMO. Besides, moves in high tech stocks from 60~~40 are quite common. Normal volatility. >> 2) The price WAS ALSO PUMPED WAY UP before the drops. << Fine. Whatever. I'm in the camp that believes BRCM is still being "pumped up". >> 3) The price doubled after the dumping was all done with, which is normal. << Then why are you trying to make it out to be a big deal that the BRCM shares will come out of lock-up? If you think it's quite normal for a rise then why aren't you long? >> 4)You have admitted to few things last night: A)) BRCM is too over-valued. << Actually I think I said it was expensive and you should stick to the overvaluation argument. I don't recall saying BRCM is "too overvalued". Nevertheless, in my opinion the whole market is overvalued. Never stopped it before. >> 5)The market last year was WAY TOO BULLISH, NOW IT IS a BEAR market which has no tolerance for such crazed valuations. << Fair enough. I have been biased to the short side lately as well. But there are many stocks with "crazed valuations". You haven't told me why BRCM is the one you singled out. (Except for the lock-up part which I don't buy into). >> 6) How do you explain such PUMPING SPIKES on extremely LOW LOW VOLUMES? It is usually the signal for the DUMPING imminence << Simple, there is little supply of BRCM stock out there. Small floats make stocks susceptible to bigger price swings on low volume. >> Craig, do not fool yourself into thinking that these spikes of $4-5 a day will last, you should know that as a SHORT SELLER. << I'm wouldn't call myself a SHORT-SELLER. I am an opportunist. I make money on the long side as well as the short side. When I'm confused about the market (alot lately) I tend to carry a more equal balance of shorts and longs, relying on my stock picking ability. I also tend to gravitate to larger more liquid safe names. (DELL, INTC, C$CO, M$FT etc). When I am more confident about the direction of the market I skew myself more heavily to the long side or the short side accordingly. I'm also going to say it one more time. I have no position in BRCM right now. A little rich for my taste. My previous trade on BRCM is documented on SI. Just because it sits in my profile doesn't mean I am long it constantly. It just means it is a company that I like and find appealing, which I think has nice potential. Same for my short picks. I haven't been short ZITL or KTEL for a while, but they sit there, because I think they are worthless good for nothing get rich quick schemes. I don't even get around to updating the pictures in my profile often enough. (I just added one tonight, for anyone who ever sees my profile, see if you can spot it).