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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Rentech(RTK) - gas-to-liquids and cleaner fuel -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Howard Williams who wrote (8656)	9/13/1998 5:59:00 PM
From: Andrew H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14347

A couple of interesting projections from a well respected poster on the Yahoo board: >>After making a whole raft of assumptions, the following is Rentech's current stock price value predicated on various penetration levels of the targeted oil refinery bottom market: CURRENT share price calculations (Assuming different market penetration levels) 5% 10% 20% 30% 50% $2.16 $4.33 $8.67 $13.01 $21.69 The most important assumptions are: 1. The Texaco deal is signed 2. Market penetration will occur by the year 2010 3. Total number of shares in issue at that time will be 50 million 4. 5% of oil refinery throughput is refinery bottoms 5. Discount factor is 25% There are at least 6 other underlying assumptions. Given that Texaco and Shell between them control around 18% of the world's refinery capacity, I feel comfortable with a Net Present Value of Rentech's stock price - following the Texaco deal - of between $4 and $6 (say $5) Note that this number takes no account of any value that will flow to Rentech as a result of targeting other markets such as coal and biomass solids. Have a good day. << >>A more conservative approach gives rise to a "feel good" number of $4, derived from the following. 5% 10% 20% 30% 50% $1.45 $2.90 $5.79 $8.69 $14.48 Of interest is that this flows from a forecast price in 2010 of between $33 and $67. I therefore stand by my original statement all those months ago that it is within the bounds of possibility for Rentech's stock price to eventually reach $100. This number now looks conservative. <<