For those that have missed this....
pay close attention tonight to the markets...
the market shrugged off Clinton ....at least temporarily...
but if our market shrugs this off...then I would say they want to take it higher into options expiration....and we should buy some calls!
To: +donald sew (27644 )
From: +flickerful
Saturday, Sep 12 1998 8:01PM ET
Reply # of 27715
nyt. japanese economy....
September 12, 1998
New Data Show Rapid Decline in Japan's Economy
By SHERYL WuDUNN
TOKYO -- In the starkest sign so far of the depth of Japan's recession, the government
said Friday that the economy contracted in the second quarter by an annual rate of 3.3
percent, nearly twice as steep a fall as most economists had expected.
This marked the first time that Japan's economy had contracted for three consecutive
quarters since the government began keeping such statistics in 1955. Moreover, the
economic data released Friday suggest that the core of the economy slid even more
rapidly than it did earlier in the year, and there are fears that the recession could get
even worse.
"The Japan economy is probably about to go through its darkest moment," said Taichi
Sakaiya, Japan's top economic official, at a news conference Friday after the figures
were announced. "Tough times will continue."
That spells trouble for other crisis-hit countries in Asia and elsewhere. As the world's
second-largest economy, Japan plays a major role in influencing the trend of growth in
the global economy.
The tough times in the real economy have also coursed through the financial markets,
which have been particularly jittery recently because of instability abroad as well as in
the wobbly financial system at home.
The economic figures were announced shortly after the close of the busiest
stock-trading day of the year, but even without the news of the depth of the recession,
stocks in Tokyo spiraled downward in their biggest single-day decline so far this year.
The benchmark Nikkei average plunged 5.11 percent from its previous close to end at
13,916.98, down 749.05 points.
The bond market rallied, sending the yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond
to a record low Friday of 0.78 percent, just after having set a record on Thursday.
Japanese long-term bond yields are already the lowest long-term interest rates of any
country in history.
Meanwhile, politicians have become deadlocked in a bitter battle in Parliament over
how to handle the nation's jittery financial system. Just on Friday, the main opposition
party pulled out of negotiations on the bad-debt crisis, saying that it would not resume
talks unless the government abandoned its plan to use taxpayers' money to bail out the
Long-Term Credit Bank, one of the nation's largest and weakest institutions.
The economic data on Friday showed that domestic demand was weak, with consumer
spending falling significantly, along with corporate investment. Deflation is spreading,
with prices, profits and pay for workers all dropping. With corporate profits
plummeting, companies are being forced to cut back on production, investment
spending and hiring, which in turn could lead consumption to fall further.
"Japan is skirting the edge of a deflationary spiral," said Sakaiya, who heads the
Economic Planning Agency.
Some economists cautioned, however, that even if Japan dipped into a deflationary
spiral, it did not mean that Japan was doomed to fall into an even deeper economic
abyss.
"When we talk about a deflationary spiral, the sense is that once it's started, we're
finished, sucked into a vortex and there's no way out," said Christopher J.R.
Calderwood, chief economist at Jardine Fleming Securities (Asia) Ltd. "If we are there
now, I don't think the economy will consume itself over the next two years."
Sakaiya of the Economic Planning Agency said that he expected economic performance
in the third quarter also to be weak and that a recovery might not come for another two
years. That is disappointing, given that the government is now carrying out a giant fiscal
stimulus package, worth about $123 billion.
Tokyo has made a lot of noise about the billions of dollars it says it is spending on
bolstering the economy. Yet a consensus is building among economists that the spending
in 1998 will be just barely above spending levels in 1997, when the economy was still
growing, and not nearly enough to lift Japan out of a recession.
"The implication for the market is that the Japanese economy still hasn't bottomed out,
fiscal policy is not working and Japan is on the road to fiscal ruin," said Andrew Shipley,
an economist at Schroders Japan Ltd.
Although gross domestic product, or GDP, did not decline this time as much as it did in
the first quarter, when the economy contracted by an annual 5.3 percent, the
breakdown by sectors troubles some economists even more.
Imports fell by about 25 percent on an annual basis, which hurts other Asian countries
because Japan traditionally is a major importer of products from the rest of the region.
But exports also fell, mainly because Asian countries, in turn, cut their purchases of
Japanese products.
"Even though GDP looks a little better, the mix is very, very bad," said Jeffrey Young,
an economist at Salomon Smith Barney in Tokyo. "It's bad for Japan. It's bad for
everyone else."
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btw, this post shows where a lie could spring up..and please dont try to tell me that Lew was lying when she said he touched certain areas...I guess WJC holds his hands up in the air when he is getting serviced ;-)
Message 5732923
the white house lawyer said this morning that WJC admitted to sexual contact before the grand jury....so it may be the he lied in a civil case but not before a grand jury...which is more serious...according to some house members.....
in trying to impeach Nixon there was a clause that said lying and trying to mislead the public...when Kendall was asked that question of whether 7 months of lying and misleading the public was enough for Clinton...
kendall didnt have an immediate answer on his tongue...and I dont think he directly answered it... |
