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To: Investor-ex! who wrote (18712)	9/13/1998 2:23:00 PM
From: Terry Rose	Respond to of 116873

Investor-ex, Approximately 1 trillion dollars is tied into the yen-dollar carry trade. The gold-dollar carry trade mirrors this trade. As evidenced by the large speculator short position in gold there is a lot of money in this trade. As long as the lease rate of gold stays low there is a limit to how high gold can go short-term. Speculative shorts know this and will continue to pile on when gold rallies. I think that there are three scenarios for a gold breakout. 1. Dollar currency devaluation shakes out the short position and forces specs to buy in mass. 2. Lease rates are raised by central banks and specs run for cover since their security blanket has been removed. 3. Gold mining companies decide to quit selling gold forward and buy back their shorts. I agree with your analysis. Terry,

To: Investor-ex! who wrote (18712)	9/13/1998 2:49:00 PM
From: banco$	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116873

"There have been half a dozen central banks that have started dumping their gold holdings in recent years, including producer nations like Canada and South Africa. So far, however, none of the heavyweight holders of gold have joined in, and it is difficult to see how they could without destroying the market and therefore the value of their own reserves. The theory is that now there is a global financial system where most of the major economies utilise floating exchange rates, and where there is a general and - because of the disciplines imposed by the global financial markets - structural commitment to preserving low levels of inflation, gold's usefulness as a hedge against inflation has passed its use-by date. There are far better-performing assets to be held as reserves, which was the RBA's motivation in selling. That does, of course, presuppose that global inflation is permanently under control, or that there are safe havens to counter any outbreaks within individual economies. There is an interesting counter-argument that the unification of regional economies and the formal or informal linking of currencies - the European Union and the European currency unit, for instance, assuming they eventuate - will shrink the diversity of potential safe havens to the US dollar and the ECU and therefore drag gold back into the limelight as the obvious alternative. ("Reserve gold sale strikes sensitive local nerve," The Age, 05 July 1997) Note: The above is a portion of the article in response to Australia's sale of gold last year. Among the threats continually issued by analysts referring to potential central bank gold sales, despite the fact that central bank officials deny that sales are planned, we do not hear similar threats concerning equities. The same tools are used to sell things like the NAFTA and Fast Track trade authority; "Your jobs are at risk if we do not push the legislation through NOW, and there is really no time to debate the issue, just trust us." How about -- "Regardless of the rise in stocks, there are lots of equity holders out there, and those equities could be sold at any moment! They have been known to sell off in the past without warning, so you ought to avoid the group altogether." Of course, it doesn't work like that does it? It is safe to bet with the winner. So long as the public, the press and institutions reflect the same opinion, true or not, the opinion will prevail and manifest itself, for a while anyway. Honestly, I am not completely jaded on the markets or solely in support of gold. It just bothers me that when the financial community resorts to threats, its position is untenable.

To: Investor-ex! who wrote (18712)	9/13/1998 8:22:00 PM
From: long-gone	Respond to of 116873

They have been, they are buying the supply of mines - at a discount. guess the mine owners need to get tough, and hold it off the market for two weeks! rh

To: Investor-ex! who wrote (18712)	6/14/2001 3:41:13 PM
From: long-gone	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116873

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thursday June 14, 3:17 pm Eastern Time Monetary policy can do little for growth-Welteke (UPDATE: Adds details) By Nick Antonovics BRUSSELS, June 14 (Reuters) - Bundesbank President Ernst Welteke said on Thursday that monetary policy could not do a lot to counter the current slowdown in growth in the 12-nation euro zone that has adopted Europe's single currency. ``Monetary policy cannot do much in this respect,'' Welteke said when asked to comment after a speech on recent weak first-quarter gross domestic product data (GDP). In his speech to an audience at Belgium's central bank, Welteke had said current European Central Bank monetary policy was ``appropriate at the present juncture.'' In a departure from his prepared text he added, ``But present means present.'' The ECB on Thursday published its latest staff projections, putting euro area growth in 2001 in a 2.2 percent to 2.8 percent range, down from a 2.6 to 3.6 percent in December. Welteke declined to comment on whether the latest projections were too optimistic, but added ``it's true...we have a problem with domestic demand,'' blaming high inflation caused by a spike in energy and food prices. ``This reduces domestic demand and therefore domestic demand is not yet fueling growth and we have to reduce our (forecast) growth rates. However, you should not forget that last year in the euro area we had the best growth for 10 years,'' he said. EURO WEAK DUE TO CAPITAL FLOWS Separately, Welteke said he did not believe the euro exchange rate had been greatly influenced by the recent rejection of the European Union's Nice treaty by Irish voters. ``I have not seen any certain influence of the Irish 'no' on the exchange rate. The underlying factor for the exchange rate development is the outflow of capital from the euro area to the United States,'' Welteke said. ``This is due more or less to globalisation. European firms do now in strategic aspects what American firms did 30 years earlier,'' he said, citing cross border deals such as Deutsche Telekom's recent buy of VoiceStream of the United States. Deutsche Telekom said on June 1 it had completed its purchase of Voicestream, which was acquired for $20.7 billion in stock and $4.2 billion in cash. ``There are a lot of events in the euro area that create uncertainty among international investors...one of these events is the 'no' of Ireland in the referendum but this is not a situation which we can make responsible for the development of the exchange rate,'' Welteke added. SEES INFLATION DECLINING Asked about past calls for policymakers to create target zones for the world's major currencies, Welteke said he would appreciate more stable exchange rates but did not know how to achieve that goal. Fixed exchange rate regimes may sometimes bring short-term, macro-economic benefits but ``mostly they are very costly,'' he said, citing Argentina and ``the kind of problems they face.'' Argentina's peso is currently pegged to the dollar. Separately, Welteke said current divergence in inflation rates between euro area countries had created problems for policy makers. On inflation divergence, he said: ``We should be very careful when we enlarge economic and monetary union to other areas where real convergence is less than between Ireland and Europe'' -- a clear reference to European Union plans to take in new members, mainly from Eastern Europe. But he saw euro area inflation as a whole falling below the ECB's two percent tolerance ceiling. ``I believe that we, in the first half of next year, will be below two percent, but one never knows,'' he said. biz.yahoo.com