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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: goldsnow who wrote (18722)	9/13/1998 2:23:00 PM
From: Ahda	Respond to of 116796

To: George S. Cole (969 ) From: Thomas Drake Sunday, Sep 13 1998 2:15PM ET Reply # of 972 George, Thank you for the Wanniski reference. The US return to gold at $20.67 starting in 1872 was not just a local phenomenon. As you know, I believe all these things are explainable under the Kondratieff idea. UK commodity prices bottomed in the 1840's at an index level of 98, peaked in 1872 at 148 and slid into 1896 to 81. (The index had been at 262 in 1812!) The London inter-bank rate got as low as 0.8% in 1896. The whole 19th century--even until 1932 to 34--was deflationary due to the insistence of holding to Isaac Newton's price of gold set in 1710. Despite what Wanniski says, the current period is a miniature replay in that gold is being forced down, and rates and prices are sinking with it. This is not bearish for stocks (except that the yield curve inversion is taking the profit out of banking). I had thought that the second to last six year cycle in the long wave (1992-93) would be the price bottom for gold commodities and rates as it had been in the 1930's, but the unprecedented war on gold went on and on and on. This year is the next to last six year cycle event time. I suspect we will see the absolute low for gold this year (may have seen it) even though disinflationary pressures will remain until 2003-2004. Although I do not look for significant inflation immediately, gold may bounce high simply because of being unnaturally suppressed for some years now.