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To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (52472)	9/13/1998 5:57:00 PM
From: flickerful	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

as to shorter term effects on oex? <eom>

To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (52472)	9/13/1998 6:31:00 PM
From: SJS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

Steve, Tres bien. I appreciate the thoroughness and time you took to reply. Your comments about crude oil futures were particularly interesting. Those of us in this sector (where the world being awash in oil has forced a downturn which has moved some very well known stock to historic lows in just about 9 months), are looking for the bottom and the long road back. Try these numbers, for instance: GLM: 36 to 9 RON: 80 to 20 OSX: 141 to 47, or so. I was just trying to see if you had any technical insights to share, and again, appreciate the well thought out response. The telltale signs are not there for a full recovery as dayrates are not real strong. However, with North America coming in to the season where the most oil demand is generated, we might see a firming of oil prices. At least, that's the hope in the oil patch. Until Asia, and other emerging nations get back on line with solid demand though, our top end is capped for a while. Bon chance, Steve

To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (52472)	9/13/1998 10:02:00 PM
From: j g cordes	Respond to of 58727

MonsGonz.. IMHO, CrudeOil is no longer acting like a commodity, rather - it is now behaving as a proxy for something perceived to have currency. Well, of course.. some excellent points. Its why the oil producing countries have found their currencies falling. The returns in dollars on their oil sales deflates their currency, especially so when paying off debt with less and less profit on their exports. Russia for example is the largest producer of oil in the world and has seen its currency fall with the price of oil to where its balance of payments became impossible. This is not true just with oil, but with other commodities as well. This includes industrial products when they become so cheaply manufactured in so many places (like DRAM) that they drop the currencies of the producing countries. What's worrisome are "spirals" of inflation or deflation. Both wreck havoc by destabilizing confidence to invest both capital and labor in new ventures. We may be facing a world deflationary spiral as even the richer countries find themselves lowering prices to meet sales and debt demands. Increasing money supplies, inflating the total volume of money in the systems while encouraging economic growth and consumer spending at all levels is most often perceived as the way out. Jim