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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raymund W who wrote (65345)	9/13/1998 7:34:00 PM
From: VICTORIA GATE, MD	Respond to of 176387

Raymund W JPR told me "I am 90% in DELL. Why I should worry?" You and me may want to stop wasting his time vg May be all he had is only 2 eggs (=90%)in one basket!

To: Raymund W who wrote (65345)	9/13/1998 10:15:00 PM
From: nihil	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

RE: How fast will DELL price grow? Dell is too big to grow revenues at sustained rapid rates (>30%) by increasing share of a market growing at under 20% pa. Its ASP is too high to grow as fast as the market w/o repositioning into cheaper segments. It is too efficient to make significant gains in gross margin. Its P/E is too high to grow rapidly, especially when the whole world stock market is being devalued. Dell's business model is being widely imitated, and some competitors are beating Dell prices on the top end by 10 per cent or more (COMPUSA f. i.) Any news is more likely to be bad than good. TA backcasting suggests that DELL has hugged its upper Bollinger band on a weekly or monthly basis -- indicating a remarkable performance over the past four years ('94 was something else!). Rarely does it touch or cut the moving average. This suggests that big buyers -- not just us -- will not let it fall very much and have an unusual commitment to this stock. The best performing growth mutual fund so far this year (Fidelity Select Computers) has a big load of DELL (but DELL has outperformed it). The loyalty of investors is notoriously fickle. The failure of Dell to correct sharply during this crash (15% ain't bad) means that in the next period other stocks that have been cut off at the knees will be able to increase faster, while DELL will continue like Sisyphus to roll its high P/E up the hill. Is there a limit to DELL's growth? Years ago we asked this question about IBM. We drew lines on charts and projected that in 2000 IBM's sales would exceed GNP. [We didn't know that it was GNP that would be collapsing (due to COBOL, IBM mainframes, and Y2k)]. We can do the same thing now, and unless someday little Chinese DELL boys and little Chinese DELL girls are going to live in Chinese DELL houses and go to Chinese DELL schools in Chinese DELL school buses, there is going to be a big slowdown in DELL price increases, even if DELL continues its superb execution. Don't know where. Don't know when. But it will happen.