To: dfloydr who wrote (2383 ) 9/14/1998 5:52:00 PM From: michael c. dodge Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 3247
Floyd........I am keeping about 1% of the company......safe at last from margin calls. One continuing concern is our lack of pricing power against the Koreans.....and hence against MOT and everyone else we sell to on the low-information content displays. However, the $$$ is up about 11.3% against the Yen over the last two months....which will ultimately give us a respite in this downward product-pricing trajectory. The new MOT phones actually look good, and have good features. BUT, two big, huge problems remain, and dog the company and the stock: (i) MOT is 50% of our business, and decreases our sales prices at will; and (ii) until we get the China plant open and full to capacity, we are vulnerable to the Koreans on pricing in those products where their goods can be substituted for ours. The Philippines production costs do not fully mitigate, as we will always have the drag of the US$ denominated headquarters/glass line costs in Tempe, which are substantial. We need (i) softness in the USD; (ii) MOT phones to sell; and (iii) the China plant to fill. Only (iii) is under our control. We do not fully or even substantially control our own destiny........until and unless our new display technologies catch on......and that event(s) is way out there in time....maybe two years from here to see big volume earnings from products which are not price sensitive, because the Koreans and Japanese do not yet have them ready to compete. This financial hiatus around the world is unfortunately giving them time to catch up with us on R&D. I still think no one.....no one I have seen yet, anyway......can match our optics and form factor on the microdisplays. I am mainly now trying to run my own primary business, so I can get some cash before the small cap market firms up again. This won't last forever, and we all must find a way to participate on the upside after the rest of the market is washed out. (All IMHO, only.) mcd