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To: Peter V who wrote (2936)	9/14/1998 5:51:00 AM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 14427

9/13/98 The Mark D. Cook Trader's Report The following report contains excerpts from Mark Cook's twice daily advisory service that covers the S&P 500 Futures, OEX Index Options and US Bond Futures. For information on Mark Cook's Twice Daily Advisory Service or The Paragon Traders' Report please call 614-792-2690 or eMail info@markcook.com Note: Mark D. Cook's weekly reports will now be posted at our website at markcook.com and The Paragon Traders' Report at paragontrd.com MARKET OVERVIEW -- Sept 8 through Sept 11 The holiday shortened trading week had plenty of news to digest which again created more volatility. The December S&Ps finished the previous week at 985.80 on a late sell off before the long holiday weekend. This sell off had the bears excited and the bulls worried. The nervousness for the bulls quickly turned into euphoria on Tuesday as the S&Ps opened the week 1012 and rallied the entire session to set a high at 1039.00. The short sellers were again trapped as Tuesday's high was over 53 points above the low made late the previous Friday. Although the S&Ps were able to rally on Tuesday they were unable to follow through on Wednesday. This has been a continual pattern during the entire move lower. Once the short sellers have been forced to cover there is no new buying power to move the market higher. This was the case on Wednesday as the S&Ps began to give back it's gains from Tuesday by closing down nearly 25 points lower. The selling accelerated again on Thursday, as fears of Ken Starr's report hit the market. The December S&Ps gapped down and moved lower the entire session closing at 979.00. The sell off in the S&Ps created an extremely oversold condition in our proprietary Cook Cumulative Tick (CCT). At Thursday's close the indicator was sitting at a -350,000. Frequent readers are aware this is an extreme reading. These types of reading produce massive rallies once the price action begins to stabilize. The bulls could not wait any longer and moved the S&Ps sharply higher on Friday as positive news from Intel and the Starr Report was released. The bears looking for a big decline Friday were forced to cover their positions as the S&Ps gained an amazing 44 points to close the holiday shortened week at 1023.00. Our CCT remains very oversold. It is now important to see if the S&Ps can follow through and continue the rally. S&P 500 FUTURES Our CCT hit -350,000 last week providing a tremendous buying opportunity. Last week's low of 976.00 is now a critical support level for the December S&P 500 futures. The bulls now have an opportunity to prove their strength as prices have stabilized and the market remains oversold. This type of situation should produce significantly higher prices. Based on the oversold condition it would not be unreasonable to see the December S&Ps trade as high as 1050-1075 this week. Because the market is poised to move significantly higher a lack of upside follow through would be very concerning. We will monitor the market early next week to determine if the move higher is legitimate. We will continue to provide updates on our twice daily advisory service. S&P 100 INDEX (OEX) Despite a VIX that topped 40 last week we traded the OEX call options. Because the market was so extremely oversold it was our belief the volatility would continue to support the high VIX. From Thursday's low the OEX rallied over 20 points to close the week at 492.99. The conditions remain ripe for further upside action. With this also being expiration week we are looking forward to the week ahead. Stay tuned to our twice daily advisory for all the latest details. BOND FUTURES The December T-Bonds set another record high last week at 129 29/32. This high corresponded with the December S&Ps testing the 975 support level. As the S&Ps rallied and the Starr report was released the upside pressure came off the T-Bonds. The T-Bonds closed the week at 128 13/32, 1 1/2 points below the session high. As long as the S&Ps remain stabile the T-Bonds will now begin to pullback. Have a great week trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Under no circumstances do we recommend trading naked options.

To: Peter V who wrote (2936)	9/14/1998 5:53:00 AM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 14427

9/13/98 The Paragon Traders' Report By Rick Tomsic The following report contains excerpts from The Paragon Traders' Report, which is published daily. The Paragon Traders' Report is a very detailed tool for OEX, S&P and T-Bond traders. For information on The Paragon Traders' Report, or to subscribe, please call 614-792-2690 or eMail info@paragontrd.com Please visit paragontrd.com for subscription information. The Paragon Traders' Report Weekly Outlook Market Recap for the Week of September 8 through September 11 News dominated the market last week causing the S&P and T-Bonds to gyrate at a frenzied pace. In addition to the extreme moves traders had to adjust to the Dec contract pricing as it became the front month on Thursday. When the dust settled on the week the bulls emerged victorious as the Dec S&Ps gained 37.20 points. Lets' take a closer look at how the week unfolded and what this action means going forward. Recall that on Friday Sept 4 the Dec S&Ps sold off late in the session setting a low at 966.20 before closing at 985.80. Although the S&Ps closed weak they were still above the key 976 support level. By the time the long weekend was over the bulls again regained control aided by rebounding foreign markets. Tuesday's rally was massive as the December S&Ps gained over 52 points to close back near the key 1040 resistance level. As we have grown accustom there was no follow though of this rally on Wednesday. In fact, the Dec S&Ps gave back nearly half their Tuesday's gain by closing down over 24 points. The range between 976 - 1040 continued. Since the S&Ps again failed at the upper end of the range it was reasonable for the lower end to be tested. This did not take long as the Dec contract fell to 976.00 on Thursday as the heavy selling return. The S&Ps closed Thursday at 979.00 just above the critical support level. It was our belief that a major move was in the making. Despite what seemed to by wide swings the S&Ps had become very compressed. The fear of the Ken Starr report loomed over the market helping keep prices down. Good news from Intel after the bell on Thursday brought a positive tone back to the market early Friday. The Dec S&Ps opened and tested the key 976 level in the first 15 minutes of trading. As this level held the bulls gained confidence and the short sellers ran for cover. The result was a massive rally pushing the S&Ps to 1012 in the first hour of trading. The next wave of buying occurred as the Starr report was released. This was classic sell on rumor buy on the news. The Dec contract ended the week at 1023.00 back near the upper end of the 976-1040 range. We will be watching closely early next week to see if the bulls finally have enough buying power to close the S&Ps above this range. Market Outlook Where does the market go from here? Last week's low set at 976.00 on the December S&Ps is now a critical reference point. The bulls must hold the S&Ps above this level to maintain control of the market. The S&Ps must prove they are able to sustain rallies without the help of short covering. Therefore, real buying must return next week to push the S&Ps higher. If the institutions decide it is time to put cash back to work in the market it will be very obvious by the NYSE tick and the breadth of the market. A rally without strong readings from both these indicators will be viewed with caution. The bulls now have control of the S&Ps and should at a minimum test the resistance level at 1040. A close above 1040 would be confirmation of the market's strength. While the S&Ps were coming under pressure late Thursday and early Friday the December T-Bonds rallied to a new all-time high at 129 29/32. We continue to urge S&P traders to monitor the bond market for clues to market direction. As the S&Ps and T-Bonds continue to trade inversely a rally in the S&Ps will cause the T-Bonds to test the 126 support level. We will continue to provide detailed daily updates via our Paragon Traders' Report. Have a great week. Daily Highlights from The Paragon Traders' Report for the week of September 8: Monday September 7: All markets closed for Labor Day. Tuesday September 8: "The fact that the S&Ps moved 20 pts below the 976-1006 trading range and closed back inside the range is a potentially strong sign. Even if the collapse is to occur a rally back to the 1006-1015 area is a distinct possibility. The early trading today will be crucial. An early selloff on extreme ticks that holds critical support levels may produce a massive late session rally." The bulls returned from the long holiday weekend well rested while the bears decided to spend and extra day in the Hamptons. The result was a massive gap plus open that pushed the Sept S&Ps to a high of 1012 by 1045 ET. After a pullback to 996 at mid-session the S&Ps rallied for the remainder of the session closing up 51.50 at 1027.50. Wednesday September 9: "For the bulls to maintain control the Sept S&Ps should not trade significantly below 1009. There is now a gap below the market at 994.00-996.00. The short-term support and resistance levels remain at 1006 and 1046." The bulls were unable to move the market higher on Wednesday as the bears returned to gain control of the market. The Sept S&Ps set an early high at 1028 and then stair stepped lower to finish the day at 1003.00, down 24.50. The gap from Tuesday still remained below the market acting as a magnet for the S&Ps. Thursday September 10: "The pattern completed Wednesday should now produce a test of the 976 area (Dec contract 986)." The extreme selling continue on Thursday as weak foreign markets and fear of the Ken Starr report pushed the S&Ps lower. The December S&Ps gapped down 20 points to open the day session at 993.00. This would only be the beginning of the move lower. An attempt to rally failed at 999.00 bringing the bears out in full force. From this mid-day high the Dec S&Ps dropped to a low of 976.00. The Dec S&Ps finished the day at 979.00 near the lower end of the trading range. The bulls had to rescue the S&Ps to avoid a much more serious decline. Friday September 11: "The market is once again at a major juncture with S&Ps back at the lower end of the 976-1016 trading range. If this level holds again on early extreme selling a mid-to-late session rally similar to Tuesday's 30 pts move is possible. This would move the Dec S&Ps up into the gap area at 999.00-1012.50." The bulls motto on Friday was buy on the news. Favorable news from Intel helped lift the S&Ps during the Globex session. This rally spilled over into the day session as the Dec S&Ps opened at 983.00 and tested Thursday low of 976.00 in the first 15 minutes of trading. As this support level held the short sellers began to cover. The result was a massive short squeeze that moved the Dec contract to a high of 1012, up 33 points, by 1015 ET. The bulls would not be denied on Friday as the S&Ps pushed higher all session. The final buying wave carried the December contract to a high of 1024 before closing the week at 1023, up 44 points on the session. Past performance is not indicative of future results.